{"id":11546,"date":"2024-09-20T05:36:09","date_gmt":"2024-09-20T05:36:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/?p=11546"},"modified":"2024-09-20T05:36:09","modified_gmt":"2024-09-20T05:36:09","slug":"46-ekonomistli-anket-fed-nasil-bir-yol-izleyecek","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/2024\/09\/20\/46-ekonomistli-anket-fed-nasil-bir-yol-izleyecek\/","title":{"rendered":"46 ekonomistli anket: Fed nas\u0131l bir yol izleyecek?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Bloomberg’in anketine kat\u0131lan ekonomistlere g\u00f6re, Fed’in \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta ve takip eden iki toplant\u0131da faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7eyrek puan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

Piyasa fiyatlamalar\u0131 Fed yetkililerinin Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda b\u00f6yle bir hamle olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 etraf\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde birle\u015fmi\u015f olsa da, ankete kat\u0131lan 46 ekonomistin \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu, yetkililerin, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda bekledikleri tam y\u00fczde puanl\u0131k indirimlerden daha kademeli bir faiz indirimi h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 tercih etmesini bekliyor.<\/p>\n

6-11 Eyl\u00fcl tarihleri aras\u0131nda yap\u0131lan ankete g\u00f6re, ankete kat\u0131lan ekonomistlerin sadece birka\u00e7\u0131 Fed’in Kas\u0131m ya da Aral\u0131k toplant\u0131s\u0131nda yar\u0131m puanl\u0131k faiz indirimi yapmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

Bununla birlikte, kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar yetkililerin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131llarda, tahminlerini en son g\u00fcncelledikleri Haziran ay\u0131nda \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fcklerine k\u0131yasla daha agresif bir faiz indirimi patikas\u0131 izleyeceklerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Anketteki medyan projeksiyona g\u00f6re faiz oranlar\u0131 gelecek y\u0131l\u0131n sonunda y\u00fczde 3,5-3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 2026 sonunda ise y\u00fczde 2,75-3 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda olacak.<\/p>\n

BMO Capital Markets ABD Ba\u015fekonomisti Scott Anderson, \u201cFed’in faizleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesini ve ayr\u0131ca para politikas\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azaltmak i\u00e7in \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki toplant\u0131larda bir dizi ek faiz indirimi sinyali vermesini bekliyorum\u201d dedi. <\/p>\n

Daha y\u00fcksek i\u015fsizlik beklentisi<\/strong><\/b><\/p>\n

Faiz indirimlerinin h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131, ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131l i\u015fe al\u0131mlar\u0131n yava\u015flamas\u0131 ve i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesiyle ilgili endi\u015felerin artmas\u0131yla uyumlu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Bu durum, enflasyon Fed’in y\u00fczde 2’lik hedefine tam olarak ula\u015fmadan \u00f6nce politikan\u0131n normalle\u015ftirilmesine ba\u015flanmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu.<\/p>\n

Ekonomistler, yetkililerin medyan i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 tahmininin Haziran ay\u0131nda \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen y\u00fczde 4’ten bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 4,3’e y\u00fckseldi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Ayr\u0131ca, ekonomistlerin y\u00fczde 80’i i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131na y\u00f6nelik risklerin a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

\u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131na ili\u015fkin artan endi\u015felere ra\u011fmen, ankete kat\u0131lanlar\u0131n d\u00f6rtte \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnden fazlas\u0131 ekonominin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 12 ay boyunca geni\u015flemeye devam edece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

Ekonomistler, yetkililerin son \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k projeksiyonlar\u0131nda ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerinin de\u011fi\u015fmemesinin beklendi\u011fini, ancak enflasyon ve \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon tahminlerinin muhtemelen bir miktar d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

<\/p>\n

Kaynak :\u00a0https:\/\/www.bloomberght.com\/46-ekonomistli-anket-fed-nasil-bir-yol-izleyecek-2360285<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bloomberg’in 46 ekonomistin kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131yla d\u00fczenledi\u011fi ankette medyan beklenti Fed’in bu y\u0131l \u00fc\u00e7 kez 25’er baz puanl\u0131k faiz indirimi ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oldu.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":11547,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[405,246,1730],"manset":[],"class_list":["post-11546","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-faiz","tag-fed","tag-yetkililerin"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11546","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11546"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11546\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11548,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11546\/revisions\/11548"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11547"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11546"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11546"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11546"},{"taxonomy":"manset","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/manset?post=11546"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}