{"id":13460,"date":"2024-10-03T16:24:06","date_gmt":"2024-10-03T16:24:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/?p=13460"},"modified":"2024-10-03T16:24:06","modified_gmt":"2024-10-03T16:24:06","slug":"ubs-bbva-ve-barclays-tmcb-beklentilerini-paylasti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/2024\/10\/03\/ubs-bbva-ve-barclays-tmcb-beklentilerini-paylasti\/","title":{"rendered":"UBS, BBVA ve Barclays TMCB beklentilerini payla\u015ft\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Enflasyon verilerinin ard\u0131ndan T\u00fcrkiye tahmini yay\u0131nlayan bankalar\u0131n aras\u0131na UBS, Barclays ve BBVA da kat\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n

UBS TCMB\u2019nin gev\u015femeye daha ge\u00e7 ba\u015flama riskinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. UBS ekonomisti Gyorgy Kovacs’\u0131n kaleme ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 raporda, “T\u00fcrkiye’de dezenflasyonun devam edece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz, ancak orta vadeli dezenflasyon h\u0131z\u0131 daha belirsiz” ifadeleri yer ald\u0131.<\/p>\n

T\u00dc\u0130K verilerine g\u00f6re, Eyl\u00fcl’de t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131 bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 49,38 artt\u0131. Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda ayl\u0131k enflasyon y\u00fczde 2,97 oldu. TCMB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Fatih Karahan da TBMM’de yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fmada fiyat istikrar\u0131 sa\u011flanana kadar politikay\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 tutma s\u00f6z\u00fc verdi.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Banka bug\u00fcnk\u00fc enflasyon geli\u015fmelerinin ard\u0131ndan, 2024 y\u0131l sonu T\u00dcFE tahminini y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 45’ten y\u00fczde 45,6’ya y\u00fckseltti. Banka ayr\u0131ca 2025 sonu T\u00dcFE’nin y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 23 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n

Ana senaryo Kas\u0131m’da indirim<\/b><\/p>\n

Kovacs’\u0131n raporda ayr\u0131ca, “TCMB’nin gev\u015feme d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn 250 baz puan indirimle Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmeye devam etsek de bug\u00fcnk\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klaman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan TCMB’nin gev\u015femeye daha ge\u00e7 ba\u015flama riski artt\u0131. Faiz indirimi Aral\u0131k 2024 veya 2025 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131na sarkabilir” ifadelerine yer verildi.<\/p>\n

“A\u00e7\u0131klanan enflasyon verilerinin TCMB i\u00e7in bir ikilem yaratabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz” analizinin yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 raporda, “Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131ndaki TCMB a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda daha az \u015fahin bir dil kullan\u0131lmas\u0131, net D\u00f6viz rezervlerinin Eyl\u00fcl sonu itibariyle 33 milyar dolara y\u00fckselmesi ve Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda reel politika faizinin pozitife d\u00f6nmesiyle faiz indiriminin de yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz” denildi.<\/p>\n

Raporda, “Buna ek olarak, mevduatlar\u0131n dolarizasyonunun devam etti\u011fini ve kur korumal\u0131 mevduat (KKM) stokunun geriledi\u011fini not ediyoruz” ifadeleri yer ald\u0131.<\/p>\n

BBVA tahminlerini \u00f6teledi<\/b><\/p>\n

BBVA ilk indirim beklentisini Kas\u0131m\u2019dan Aral\u0131k ay\u0131na \u00f6teledi. Kurum, ayl\u0131k enflasyonun y\u00fczde 2,97 ile y\u00fczde 2,5 olan tahminlerinin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini belirterek \u201cT\u00fcketici enflasyonu trendi, hizmet enflasyonu \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde \u00e7ekirdek enflasyondaki bozulmayla beraber k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fmeye devam etti. \u0130\u00e7 talepte devam eden \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131la\u015fmaya ra\u011fmen y\u00fcksek enflasyon beklentileri, fiyatlama davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndaki k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fme, asgari \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 belirsizli\u011fi ve y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek vergi d\u00fczenlemeleri enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk olu\u015fturuyor. Y\u0131l sonunda enflasyonun y\u00fczde 43\u2019e d\u00fc\u015fmesini bekliyoruz. Bu da TCMB\u2019ye temkinli indirim i\u00e7in s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir alan olu\u015fturabilir. \u0130lk faiz indiriminin Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. 250 baz puanl\u0131k indirimin ard\u0131ndan gelecek y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda kademeli indirim olabilir\u201d de\u011ferlendirmesine yer verdi.<\/p>\n

Barclays Kas\u0131m beklentisini korudu<\/b><\/p>\n

Barclays\u2019ten Ercan Erg\u00fczel \u201cEkim ay\u0131 enflasyon verisi kritik olacak\u201d ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131yla payla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 notta ayl\u0131k enflasyonun negatif s\u00fcrpriz oldu\u011funu belirterek \u201cKas\u0131m ay\u0131nda 250 baz puanl\u0131k faiz indirimi beklentimiz devam ediyor. Ancak Ekim ay\u0131nda ayl\u0131k enflasyon y\u00fczde 2\u2019nin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse Merkez Bankas\u0131 ilk indirimi Aral\u0131k veya Ocak ay\u0131na \u00f6teleyebilir\u201d de\u011ferlendirmesini yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n

Bankalar\u0131n son tahminleri<\/b><\/p>\n

ABD’li yat\u0131r\u0131m bankas\u0131 Morgan Stanley, Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 enflasyon verisinin ard\u0131ndan Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye’de faiz indirimi ihtimalinin zay\u0131f oldu\u011funu belirterek y\u0131l sonu enflasyon tahminini y\u00fckseltmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

Enflasyon verilerinin ard\u0131ndan tahminlerini g\u00fcncelleyen bir di\u011fer ABD’li yat\u0131r\u0131m bankas\u0131 JPMorgan da TCMB’nin ilk faiz indirimine ili\u015fkin beklentisini de\u011fi\u015ftirdi. Daha \u00f6nce ilk indirimin Kas\u0131m’da yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6ren banka bu beklentisini Ocak ay\u0131na \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Kaynak :\u00a0https:\/\/www.bloomberght.com\/ubs-bbva-ve-barclays-tmcb-beklentilerini-paylasti-2361568<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u0130svi\u00e7re Bankas\u0131 UBS, Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 enflasyon verilerinin ard\u0131ndan TCMB’nin Kas\u0131m’da faiz indirime ba\u015flama ihtimalinin devam etti\u011fini ancak gev\u015femeye daha ge\u00e7 ba\u015flama riskinin bir miktar artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. BBVA payla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 raporda ilk indirim…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13461,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[270,206,227,543,459],"manset":[],"class_list":["post-13460","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-ayinda","tag-banka","tag-enflasyon","tag-indirim","tag-tcmb"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13460","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13460"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13460\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13462,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13460\/revisions\/13462"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13461"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13460"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13460"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13460"},{"taxonomy":"manset","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/manset?post=13460"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}