{"id":14179,"date":"2024-10-10T14:48:07","date_gmt":"2024-10-10T14:48:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/?p=14179"},"modified":"2024-10-10T14:48:07","modified_gmt":"2024-10-10T14:48:07","slug":"dtoden-artan-jeopolitik-gerilime-karsi-uyari","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/2024\/10\/10\/dtoden-artan-jeopolitik-gerilime-karsi-uyari\/","title":{"rendered":"DT\u00d6’den artan jeopolitik gerilime kar\u015f\u0131 uyar\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

D\u00fcnya Ticaret \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc’n\u00fcn (DT\u00d6) yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 K\u00fcresel Ticaret G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve \u0130statistikler raporunun g\u00fcncellemesine g\u00f6re, k\u00fcresel mal ticareti bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 2,3 y\u00fckseldi. Bu art\u0131\u015f, y\u00fcksek enflasyon ve artan faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n 2023’te neden oldu\u011fu y\u00fczde 1,1’lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan ya\u015fand\u0131.<\/p>\n

DT\u00d6 ekonomistleri k\u00fcresel mal ticaretinin bu y\u0131l\u0131n tamam\u0131nda y\u00fczde 2,7 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc. Bu oran, Nisan’da yay\u0131mlanan rapordaki y\u00fczde 2,6’l\u0131k tahminden biraz daha y\u00fcksek seviyede bulunurken, ekonomistler d\u00fcnya mal ticaretinin 2025’te y\u00fczde 3 artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin etti.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

D\u00fcnyada gerileyen enflasyonla reel hane gelirleri ve t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 artmas\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz oranlar\u0131yla firmalar\u0131n yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesinin, k\u00fcresel ticaretteki toparlanmada etkili olmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

K\u00fcresel ekonominin ise bu y\u0131l ve 2025’te y\u00fczde 2,7 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Ancak DT\u00d6, artan jeopolitik gerilimler ve ekonomi politikalar\u0131ndaki belirsizliklerin k\u00fcresel ticaretteki b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fturabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n

Kurulu\u015f, Orta Do\u011fu’daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n t\u0131rmanmas\u0131n\u0131n b\u00f6lgenin petrol \u00fcretimindeki \u00f6nemi g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha da aksatabilece\u011fini ve enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltebilece\u011fini bildirdi.<\/p>\n

DT\u00d6 ayr\u0131ca merkez bankalar\u0131 faizi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcrken, b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomiler aras\u0131ndaki farkl\u0131 para politikalar\u0131n\u0131n finansal oynakl\u0131\u011fa ve sermaye ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fimlere yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fi, bunun da \u00f6zellikle daha yoksul ekonomiler i\u00e7in bor\u00e7 \u00f6demelerini daha zorlu hale getirebilece\u011fine ili\u015fkin uyar\u0131da bulundu.<\/p>\n

\u0130srail’in ticaretinde keskin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f<\/b><\/p>\n

Rapora g\u00f6re, bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda mal ihracat ve ithalat\u0131 en fazla b\u00fcy\u00fcyen \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda Vietnam, \u00c7in, G\u00fcney Kore gibi Asya \u00fclkelerinin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, Paraguay, Kosta Rika ve Brezilya gibi \u00fclkeler de yer ald\u0131.<\/p>\n

ABD ve \u00c7in’in ihracat\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131yla y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 2 ve 4 artarken, her iki \u00fclkenin de ithalat\u0131 bu d\u00f6nemde y\u00fczde 3 b\u00fcy\u00fcme kaydetti.<\/p>\n

Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda \u0130srail’in mal ihracat\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 6 ile keskin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6sterirken, mal ithalat\u0131ndaki y\u00fczde 9’luk gerileme de dikkati \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n

Bu d\u00f6nemde b\u00fcy\u00fck Avrupa ekonomilerinin ihracatlar\u0131nda \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler, ithalat\u0131nda ise daha b\u00fcy\u00fck daralmalar g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Almanya’n\u0131n ihracat\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 2, ithalat\u0131 y\u00fczde 6 geriledi. Benzer \u015fekilde Fransa’n\u0131n ihracat\u0131 y\u00fczde3, ithalat\u0131 y\u00fczde 7 geriledi.<\/p>\n

Asya’n\u0131n ihracat\u0131 bu y\u0131l di\u011fer t\u00fcm b\u00f6lgelerden h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyecek<\/b><\/p>\n

Bu y\u0131l\u0131n tamam\u0131nda b\u00f6lgesel bazda Asya’n\u0131n ihracat\u0131n\u0131n di\u011fer t\u00fcm b\u00f6lgelerden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi ve y\u00fczde 7,4 artaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin edildi.<\/p>\n

Bunu y\u00fczde 4,7 ile Orta Do\u011fu, y\u00fczde 4,6 ile G\u00fcney Amerika, y\u00fczde 4,5 ile Ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z Devletler Toplulu\u011fu \u00fclkeleri, y\u00fczde 2,5 ile Afrika, y\u00fczde 2,1 ile Kuzey Amerika izlerken, Avrupa’n\u0131n ihracat\u0131 y\u00fczde 1,4 daralacak.<\/p>\n

\u0130thalat taraf\u0131nda ise en h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 9 ile Orta Do\u011fu’da beklenirken, bu art\u0131\u015f G\u00fcney Amerika’da y\u00fczde 5,6, Asya’da 4,3, Kuzey Amerika’da 3,3, Ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z Devletler Toplulu\u011fu \u00fclkelerinde 1,1 ve Afrika’da y\u00fczde 1 seviyesinde olacak. Bu y\u0131l Avrupa’n\u0131n ithalat\u0131 ise y\u00fczde 2,3 d\u00fc\u015fecek.<\/p>\n

Avrupa’n\u0131n ihracat\u0131ndaki daralmada b\u00f6lgenin otomotiv ve kimya sekt\u00f6rlerindeki sorunlar\u0131n etkili olaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

“Jeopolitik \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar enerji maliyeti ve nakliye rotalar\u0131n\u0131 etkileyebilir”<\/b><\/p>\n

DT\u00d6 Genel Direkt\u00f6r\u00fc Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, rapora ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmesinde, bu y\u0131l i\u00e7inde k\u00fcresel ticarette kademeli toparlanma beklediklerini ancak Orta Do\u011fu’daki gibi b\u00f6lgesel \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n t\u0131rmanma ihtimalini izlediklerini belirterek, “B\u00f6lgesel \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n etkisi, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya do\u011frudan dahil olan \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in en \u015fiddetli \u015fekilde hissedilebilir ama dolayl\u0131 olarak k\u00fcresel enerji maliyetleri ve nakliye rotalar\u0131 da gerilimin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131ndan etkilenebilir. Ekonomik yans\u0131malar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6tesinde, bu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalardan etkilenenler i\u00e7in insani sonu\u00e7lar konusunda derinden endi\u015feliyiz.” ifadelerini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n

K\u00fcresel ekonomik istikrar\u0131 ve s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in birlikte \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya devam etmenin \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli oldu\u011funu kaydeden Okonjo-Iweala, “\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bunlar d\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131nda insanlar\u0131n refah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in temel olu\u015fturuyor. DT\u00d6’n\u00fcn kurulmas\u0131ndan bu yana ge\u00e7en son otuz y\u0131lda, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ve orta gelirli ekonomilerde ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen gelir neredeyse \u00fc\u00e7 kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Kapsay\u0131c\u0131 k\u00fcresel ticareti te\u015fvik etme \u00e7abalar\u0131m\u0131za devam etmeliyiz” de\u011ferlendirmesinde bulundu.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

<\/p>\n

Kaynak :\u00a0https:\/\/www.bloomberght.com\/dto-den-artan-jeopolitik-gerilime-karsi-uyari-2362066<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

K\u00fcresel mal ticaretinin bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 2,7 b\u00fcy\u00fcyerek kademeli toparlanma g\u00f6stermesi beklenirken, Orta Do\u011fu ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere artan jeopolitik gerilimler ve ekonomi politikalar\u0131ndaki belirsizliklerin ticaretteki b\u00fcy\u00fcme i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk olu\u015fturdu\u011fu…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":14180,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[118,199,418,281,330],"manset":[],"class_list":["post-14179","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-ekonomi","tag-ihracat","tag-ithalati","tag-mal","tag-yuzde-2"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14179","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14179"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14179\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":14181,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14179\/revisions\/14181"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/14180"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14179"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14179"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14179"},{"taxonomy":"manset","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/manset?post=14179"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}