{"id":15499,"date":"2025-04-30T21:24:08","date_gmt":"2025-04-30T21:24:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/?p=15499"},"modified":"2025-04-30T21:24:08","modified_gmt":"2025-04-30T21:24:08","slug":"turmp-ikinci-kez-iktidar-olursa-almanya-ne-kaybeder","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/2025\/04\/30\/turmp-ikinci-kez-iktidar-olursa-almanya-ne-kaybeder\/","title":{"rendered":"“Turmp ikinci kez iktidar olursa Almanya ne kaybeder?”"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Alman Ekonomi Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc (IW), eski ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump’\u0131n “Kas\u0131m 2024’te yeniden ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 olarak se\u00e7ilmesinin” ve “ABD’nin ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azaltmak amac\u0131yla Avrupa Birli\u011fi (AB) de dahil olmak \u00fczere g\u00fcmr\u00fck tarifelerini art\u0131rma y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki taahh\u00fctlerini yerine getirmesinin” k\u00fcresel ticaret d\u00fczeninde \u00f6nemli bir kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011fa yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fini bildirdi.<\/p>\n

IW, ekonomiye y\u00f6nelik, “Trump 2 d\u00f6neminde transatlantik ticaret ili\u015fkilerini tehdit eden nedir?” ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 analizi yay\u0131nlad\u0131.<\/p>\n

Analizde, “Washington ile bir ticaret sava\u015f\u0131” ya\u015fanmas\u0131 halinde Almanya’n\u0131n milyarlarca euroluk kay\u0131pla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalaca\u011f\u0131 ifade edildi.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

IW ekonomistleri, birinci senaryoda, 2025’te ABD g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergilerinin t\u00fcm ABD ithalat\u0131nda y\u00fczde 10’a ve ABD’nin \u00c7in’den ithalat\u0131nda y\u00fczde 60’a \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131, AB’nin ise buna ABD’den yap\u0131lan ithalatta y\u00fczde 10’luk bir misilleme tarifesiyle kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k vermesini modelledi.<\/p>\n

\u0130ki modelleme yap\u0131ld\u0131<\/b><\/p>\n

Analizde, bu durumda 2028’e kadar Almanya’n\u0131n gayrisafi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131las\u0131ndaki (GSYH) kayb\u0131n 127 milyar euro olaca\u011f\u0131 belirtildi.<\/p>\n

\u0130kinci senaryoda ise Trump’\u0131n ABD g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergilerini y\u00fczde 20’ye \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131 ve AB’nin de ABD’den ithalata y\u00fczde 20’lik bir misilleme g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergisiyle kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k vermesi modellendi.<\/p>\n

Analizde, bu durum ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse 2028’de Almanya’n\u0131n GSYH’sinde y\u00fczde 1,5’lik bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131 ve 4 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde kay\u0131plar\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 180 milyar euroya ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131 belirtildi.<\/p>\n

Senaryolar, AB’nin ABD’ye e\u015f de\u011fer bir tarife art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ile tepki vermesi halinde, bu t\u00fcr \u00f6nlemlerin ABD ekonomisi i\u00e7in etkisinin olumsuz olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da ortaya koydu.<\/p>\n

Analizde, “Senaryoya ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, ABD ekonomisi 2025’te temel senaryoya k\u0131yasla GSYH’nin yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 1,3’\u00fc ile y\u00fczde 1,5’i aras\u0131nda bir ekonomik kayba u\u011frayacakt\u0131r. Olumsuz GSYH etkileri ilk iki y\u0131lda en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olacak ve zaman i\u00e7inde azalacakt\u0131r” denildi.<\/p>\n

Trump’\u0131n ilave g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergisi tehditlerinin d\u00fcnya genelinde serbest ticarete y\u00f6nelik tutumlar\u0131n nas\u0131l de\u011fi\u015fti\u011finin yaln\u0131zca bir y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc olu\u015fturdu\u011funa yer verilen analizde, \u00c7in’in ticaret uygulamalar\u0131n\u0131n da serbest ticaret i\u00e7in bir zorluk te\u015fkil etti\u011fi kaydedildi. Analizde, “AB ve Almanya buna daha sa\u011flam bir ticaret politikas\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k vermelidir. Jeopolitik a\u00e7\u0131dan gergin bir d\u00f6nemde bu, inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 bir tehdit ve nihayetinde reel politi\u011fin gerekli bir unsuru olarak misilleme tedbirlerinin uygulanmas\u0131n\u0131 da i\u00e7erir” ifadelerine yer verildi.<\/p>\n

“Bir\u00e7ok \u015firket olumsuz etkiden endi\u015fe ediyor”<\/b><\/p>\n

Bu arada, Ekonomi Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Enstit\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn (Ifo) 2 bin \u015firketle yap\u0131lan anketine g\u00f6re, Almanya’da neredeyse her iki sanayi \u015firketinden biri Donald Trump’\u0131n ABD ba\u015fkan\u0131 se\u00e7ilmesinin kendi faaliyetleri \u00fczerinde olumsuz olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor.<\/p>\n

\u015eirketlerin yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 51’i i\u00e7in ise 5 Kas\u0131m’daki se\u00e7imi hangi aday\u0131n kazanaca\u011f\u0131 fark etmiyor. Sadece y\u00fczde 5’i Trump’\u0131n zaferinin olumlu etkilerini bekliyor.<\/p>\n

Ifo D\u0131\u015f Ticaret Uzman\u0131 Andreas Baur, de\u011ferlendirmesinde, “\u00d6zellikle ABD ile yak\u0131n ekonomik ba\u011flar\u0131 olan \u015firketler, Trump’\u0131n se\u00e7imi kazanmas\u0131 halinde olumsuz sonu\u00e7lar bekliyor” ifadelerini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n

Baur, ABD ile do\u011frudan ihracat ba\u011f\u0131 olmayan bir\u00e7ok \u015firketin de olumsuz etkiden endi\u015fe etti\u011fini belirterek, “\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc tedarik\u00e7i olarak, dolayl\u0131 olarak etkilenebilirler” dedi.<\/p>\n

Trump, se\u00e7imi kazan\u0131rsa g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergilerini \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

<\/p>\n

Kaynak :\u00a0https:\/\/www.bloomberght.com\/turmp-ikinci-kez-iktidar-olursa-almanya-ne-kaybeder-2363005<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

“Washington ile bir ticaret sava\u015f\u0131” ya\u015fanmas\u0131 halinde Almanya’n\u0131n<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":15500,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[245,118,2137,182,208],"manset":[],"class_list":["post-15499","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-abd","tag-ekonomi","tag-olumsuz","tag-sirket","tag-ticaret"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15499","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15499"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15499\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15501,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15499\/revisions\/15501"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/15500"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15499"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15499"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15499"},{"taxonomy":"manset","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/manset?post=15499"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}