{"id":15526,"date":"2025-04-30T23:12:11","date_gmt":"2025-04-30T23:12:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/?p=15526"},"modified":"2025-04-30T23:12:11","modified_gmt":"2025-04-30T23:12:11","slug":"betam-ucuncu-ceyrekte-daralma-ongordu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/2025\/04\/30\/betam-ucuncu-ceyrekte-daralma-ongordu\/","title":{"rendered":"BETAM \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte daralma \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Bah\u00e7e\u015fehir \u00dcniversitesi Ekonomik ve Toplumsal Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar Merkezi, Betam, Prof. Dr. Ozan Bak\u0131\u015f ve Ara\u015ft\u0131rma G\u00f6revlisi O\u011fuz Yurto\u011flu taraf\u0131ndan haz\u0131rlanan “\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00c7eyrekte Daralma” ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 Ekonomik B\u00fcy\u00fcme ve Tahminler: Ekim 2024 ara\u015ft\u0131rma notunu yay\u0131mlad\u0131.<\/p>\n

Kesinle\u015fen Temmuz, A\u011fustos ve k\u0131smen a\u00e7\u0131klanan Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 GSYH \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergeleri ile yap\u0131lan hesaplamalara g\u00f6re T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin 2024 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 \u00e7eyre\u011fine k\u0131yasla y\u00fczde 1,3 oran\u0131nda k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Mevsim ve takvim etkilerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f verilerle yapt\u0131lan hesaplamalarla ise 2024 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe k\u0131yasla GSYH\u2019nin y\u00fczde 0,6 azalaca\u011f\u0131 tahmen edildi.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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T\u00fcketim mallar\u0131 ve konut kredilerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f<\/b><\/p>\n

2024 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe k\u0131yasla t\u00fcketim mallar\u0131 ithalat\u0131nda y\u00fczde 3,7, konut kredilerinde y\u00fczde 6,2 ve kamu t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 5\u2019lik bir azal\u015f tahmin edildi.<\/p>\n

Bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00f6re bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, t\u00fcketim mallar\u0131 ithalat\u0131nda y\u00fczde 1 ve kamu t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 13,4\u2019l\u00fck bir art\u0131\u015f, konut kredilerinde ise y\u00fczde 3,6 ile ciddi bir azal\u0131 \u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde t\u00fcketici kredilerinde de y\u00fczde 5,9\u2019luk bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f tahmin edildi.<\/p>\n

Kamu yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f<\/b><\/p>\n

Mevsim ve takvim etkilerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f veriye g\u00f6re, 2024 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fe yat\u0131r\u0131m mal\u0131 ithalat\u0131nda y\u00fczde 4,3\u2019l\u00fck bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, kamu yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131nda ise y\u00fczde 6,6\u2019l\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n

Di\u011fer yat\u0131r\u0131m \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergelerinde beklenen de\u011fi\u015fimler ise y\u00fczde 2,1 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ile y\u00fczde 1 art\u0131\u015f aras\u0131nda izlendi.<\/p>\n

Y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda ise kamu yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131nda y\u00fcksek bir art\u0131\u015f (y\u00fczde55,4), ticari kredilerde ise y\u00fczde 2,6\u2019l\u0131k bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Perakende stoklar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 5,5\u2019lik, \u00fcretim beklentilerinde ise y\u00fczde 12,9\u2019luk ciddi bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f hesapland\u0131.<\/p>\n

\u0130thalatta y\u0131ll\u0131k, ihracatta \u00e7eyreklik baz\u0131nda \u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f<\/b><\/p>\n

2024 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde, mevsim ve takvim etkilerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f d\u0131 \u0327s ticaret rakamlar\u0131na bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ihracatta y\u00fczde 0,4\u2019l\u00fck, ithalatta ise y\u00fczde 6\u2019l\u0131k bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f tahmin edildi.<\/p>\n

\u0327Bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 \u00e7eyre\u011fine k\u0131yasla bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ise ihracat y\u00fczde 1,9, alt\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihracat ise y\u00fczde 2,6 art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Ithalat ise y\u00fczde 8,2 azal\u0131rken, alt\u0131n dahil edilmedi\u011finde ithalatta y\u00fczde 3,4\u2019l\u00fck azal\u0131\u015f hesapland\u0131.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Kaynak :\u00a0https:\/\/www.bloomberght.com\/betam-ucuncu-ceyrekte-daralma-ongordu-2363035<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bah\u00e7e\u015fehir \u00dcniversitesi Ekonomik ve Toplumsal Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar Merkezi (BETAM) T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin 2024 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe k\u0131yasla y\u00fczde 0,6 daralaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc. Ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde y\u0131ll\u0131k daralma ise y\u00fczde 1,3 olarak tahmin edildi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":15527,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[223,109,317,130,712],"manset":[],"class_list":["post-15526","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-artis","tag-kamu","tag-tuketim","tag-yatirim","tag-yuzde-1"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15526","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15526"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15526\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15528,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15526\/revisions\/15528"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/15527"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15526"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15526"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15526"},{"taxonomy":"manset","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/manset?post=15526"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}