{"id":18245,"date":"2025-05-18T11:00:19","date_gmt":"2025-05-18T11:00:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/?p=18245"},"modified":"2025-05-18T11:00:19","modified_gmt":"2025-05-18T11:00:19","slug":"asgari-ucrette-senaryolar-hangi-artisa-gore-asgari-ucret-ne-kadar-olabilecek","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/2025\/05\/18\/asgari-ucrette-senaryolar-hangi-artisa-gore-asgari-ucret-ne-kadar-olabilecek\/","title":{"rendered":"Asgari \u00fccrette senaryolar: Hangi art\u0131\u015fa g\u00f6re asgari \u00fccret ne kadar olabilecek?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ba\u015fta asgari \u00fccretliler olmak \u00fczere \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan kesim Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda belirlenecek asgari \u00fccrete odakland\u0131.<\/p>\n

Asgari \u00dccret Tespit Komisyonu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 ba\u015flamadan \u00e7ok \u00f6nce kamuoyunda asgari \u00fccret ile ilgili beklentiler, senaryolar da konu\u015fulmaya ba\u015flarken, temel merak konusu art\u0131\u015f i\u00e7in hedef enflasyonun mu, yoksa ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen enflasyonun mu al\u0131naca\u011f\u0131 noktas\u0131nda yo\u011funla\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

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\u00d6nceki y\u0131llarda y\u00fcksek enflasyon nedeniyle y\u0131lda iki kez art\u0131r\u0131lan asgari \u00fccret s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma politikalar\u0131 sonucu 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u0131ll\u0131k olarak belirlenmi\u015f ve y\u00fczde 49\u2019luk zam oran\u0131yla br\u00fct 20 bin 2, net 17 bin 2 lira olarak uygulanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

2025 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in konu\u015fulan senaryolarda \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan olas\u0131l\u0131k ve hesaplamalar yap\u0131lmaya ba\u015fland\u0131.<\/p>\n

\u0130\u015fte 2025 i\u00e7in olas\u0131 zam oranlar\u0131 ve asgari \u00fccret tutarlar\u0131…<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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1- Y\u00fczde 17,5 ve y\u00fczde 21: 19 bin 977 ile 20 bin 572 TL <\/b><\/p>\n

Asgari \u00fccret tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131nda konu\u015fulan konulardan biri art\u0131\u015f\u0131n hedef enflasyona g\u00f6re yap\u0131lmas\u0131.<\/p>\n

Orta Vadeli Program’a g\u00f6re 2025 i\u00e7in enflasyon beklentisi y\u00fczde 17,5 seviyesinde. OVP’de yer alan hedef enflasyona g\u00f6re zam yap\u0131lmas\u0131 durumunda asgari \u00fccret 2025 i\u00e7in 19 bin 977 seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kacak.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 (TCMB) ise son enflasyon raporunda 2025 i\u00e7in enflasyon beklentisini y\u00fczde 14’ten y\u00fczde 21 seviyesine \u00e7\u0131karm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. TCMB’nin enflasyon beklentisi dikkate al\u0131n\u0131rsa asgari \u00fccret y\u00fczde 21 art\u0131\u015fla 20 bin 572 TL’ye \u00e7\u0131kacak.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Son enflasyon raporu sunumunda TCMB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Fatih Karahan, asgari \u00fccret konusunda karar verici merci olmad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 vurgularken, enflasyona etkileri ba\u011flam\u0131nda da bu konuda de\u011ferlendirmeler olmu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n

“\u00dccret da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck vas\u0131fl\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131n \u00fccretlerinin da\u011f\u0131l\u0131mda zarar g\u00f6rmemesi i\u00e7in art\u0131\u015f\u0131n enflasyona zarar vermeyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rmek laz\u0131m” diyen Ak\u00e7ay, di\u011fer \u00fccretlerdeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n asgari \u00fccretin gerisinde kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 dile getirmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u00d6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerin de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck zamlar\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi\u011fine dikkat \u00e7eken Ak\u00e7ay, “Bu enflasyon i\u00e7in olumlu. \u015eunu s\u00f6ylemekte fayda var bir noktada illa ki ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck endekslemeye ge\u00e7meliyiz. \u0130leriye d\u00f6n\u00fck endeksleme devreye girmek zorunda. Konjonkt\u00fcr\u00fcn de uygun oldu\u011fu kanaatindeyim” ifadelerini kullanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

2- Y\u00fczde 25: 21 bin 253 TL <\/b><\/p>\n

TCMB’nin son enflasyon raporunda 2025 i\u00e7in enflasyon tahmininin \u00fcst band\u0131 y\u00fczde 26 olarak belirlendi.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Bununla birlikte yabanc\u0131 kurumlardan gelen baz\u0131 yorumlar ve yetkili isimlerden gelen a\u00e7\u0131klamalar asgari \u00fccrette ikinci senaryo olarak y\u00fczde 25 seviyesinin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na neden oldu.<\/p>\n

Ekim ay\u0131n\u0131n sonunda TCMB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Fatih Karahan\u2019\u0131n Washington\u2019da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131larla ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde 2025 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 \u015fekillendirirken asgari \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 boyutunu da de\u011ferlendirmeye alacaklar\u0131 mesaj\u0131n\u0131 verdi\u011fi belirtilmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Bloomberg’e konu\u015fan ve Karahan’\u0131n yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131larla toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan edinilen bilgilere at\u0131fta bulunan kaynaklara g\u00f6re yetkililer y\u00fczde 25 civar\u0131 asgari \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n 2025 enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcyle uyumlu olaca\u011f\u0131 mesaj\u0131n\u0131 vermi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

Deutsche Bank ge\u00e7en hafta T\u00fcrkiye’de ekonomi y\u00f6netimi, banka y\u00f6neticileri, ekonomistler ve akademisyenlerle yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ard\u0131ndan haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 notta T\u00fcrkiye’de yetkililerin enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc konusunda temkinli iyimserlik i\u00e7inde oldu\u011funu belirtti. Notta enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik \u00f6nemdeki 2025 asgari \u00fccreti konusunda “Genel beklenti y\u00fczde 25-30 art\u0131\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde” ifadeleri kullan\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Notta enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik \u00f6nemdeki asgari \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131na da ayr\u0131 bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n

Asgari \u00fccrette 2025 i\u00e7in genel beklentinin y\u00fczde 25-30 aras\u0131nda bir art\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funu belirten Deutsche Bank ekibi, asgari \u00fccrette y\u00fczde 30’un \u00fczerinde bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131n, yava\u015flayan ekonomi ortam\u0131nda i\u015fletmeleri zor durumda b\u0131rakaca\u011f\u0131 ve enflasyon beklentilerini bozaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bir kan\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Di\u011fer yandan, Ankara Ticaret Odas\u0131 (ATO) Y\u00f6netim Kurulu Ba\u015fkan\u0131 G\u00fcrsel Baran, TCMB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Fatih Karahan’\u0131n asgari \u00fccrette y\u00fczde 25 civar\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcyle uyumlu olaca\u011f\u0131 mesaj\u0131n\u0131 verdi\u011fini belirterek, “Biz de yap\u0131lacak zamm\u0131n bu seviyede olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi kanaatindeyiz” dedi.<\/p>\n

Bu senaryoya g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 25 zam yap\u0131l\u0131rsa, asgari \u00fccret 21 bin 253 lira olacak.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

3- Y\u00fczde 30: 22 bin 103 TL <\/b><\/p>\n

Asgari \u00fccrete ili\u015fkin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f bildiren yabanc\u0131 kurumlardan bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc de y\u00fczde 30\u2019l\u0131k tahmin belirtti.<\/p>\n

Bu oranda bir zam yap\u0131lmas\u0131 durumunda asgari \u00fccret 22 bin 103 lira olacak.<\/p>\n

4- Y\u00fczde 35: 22 bin 953 TL <\/b><\/p>\n

Asgari \u00fccrette y\u00fczde 35’lik art\u0131\u015f senaryosu da farkl\u0131 d\u00fczeylerde dile getiriliyor.<\/p>\n

Bu senaryoda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen enflasyona daha yak\u0131n bir asgari \u00fccret tahmini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. S\u00f6z konusu senaryo siyaset sahnesinde de dile getirilen senaryolar aras\u0131nda yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
<\/div>\n

E\u011fer pazarl\u0131klar b\u00f6yle ba\u015flar ve ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fczde 35 ile biterse asgari \u00fccret 22 bin 953 lira olarak uygulanacak.<\/p>\n

5- Y\u00fczde 44: 24 bin 483 TL <\/b><\/p>\n

Son senaryo ise ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen enflasyona g\u00f6re bir art\u0131\u015f yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde.<\/p>\n

TCMB’nin son enflasyon raporunda 2024 y\u0131l sonu i\u00e7in enflasyon tahmini y\u00fczde 38’den y\u00fczde 44’e \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n

Kamuoyunda asgari \u00fccretlilerin refah kayb\u0131 ya\u015famamas\u0131 i\u00e7in ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen enflasyona g\u00f6re zam senaryosu da \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ankara’da siyaset arenas\u0131nda oldu\u011fu gibi, baz\u0131 akademisyenler de ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen enflasyona i\u015faret etmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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E\u011fer bu veri baz al\u0131n\u0131rsa, asgari \u00fccret 24 bin 843 lira olacak.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Kaynak :\u00a0https:\/\/www.bloomberght.com\/asgari-ucrette-senaryolar-hangi-artisa-gore-asgari-ucret-ne-kadar-olabilecek-3735029<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Asgari \u00dccret Tespit Komisyonu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131na ba\u015flamadan asgari \u00fccrette bir\u00e7ok senaryo konu\u015fuluyor. Kamuoyunda konu\u015fulan senaryolarda asgari \u00fccret zamm\u0131n\u0131n hedeflenen enflasyona g\u00f6re mi yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131, yoksa ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen enflasyonun mu dikkate al\u0131naca\u011f\u0131 sorusu temel unsur olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu hesaplamalar \u00fczerinden bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda 2025 i\u00e7in asgari \u00fccret senaryolar\u0131 20 bin TL’den 24 bin 500 TL’ye uzan\u0131yor. \u0130\u015fte asgari \u00fccrette \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan senaryolar…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":18246,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[223,789,227,2393,408],"manset":[],"class_list":["post-18245","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-artis","tag-asgari-ucret","tag-enflasyon","tag-senaryo","tag-zam"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18245","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18245"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18245\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18248,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18245\/revisions\/18248"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/18246"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18245"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18245"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18245"},{"taxonomy":"manset","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/manset?post=18245"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}