{"id":19713,"date":"2025-05-22T10:24:10","date_gmt":"2025-05-22T10:24:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/?p=19713"},"modified":"2025-05-22T10:24:10","modified_gmt":"2025-05-22T10:24:10","slug":"oecd-turkiye-icin-2024-yili-tufe-beklentisini-yukseltti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/2025\/05\/22\/oecd-turkiye-icin-2024-yili-tufe-beklentisini-yukseltti\/","title":{"rendered":"OECD, T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 T\u00dcFE beklentisini y\u00fckseltti"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ekonomik \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi ve Kalk\u0131nma \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc (OECD), k\u00fcresel ekonominin bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 3,2 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcrken, T\u00fcrkiye’de ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u00fczde 3,5 olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor.<\/p>\n

OECD’nin Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm Raporu yay\u0131mland\u0131. Buna g\u00f6re, enflasyonun \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 seyretmeye devam etmesi ve ticaretteki canlanmayla, k\u00fcresel ekonomi bir\u00e7ok belirsizli\u011fe ra\u011fmen diren\u00e7li olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

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Gerekli makroekonomik istikrar politikalar\u0131n\u0131n i\u00e7 talebi yava\u015flatmas\u0131 nedeniyle T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin ise bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 3,5 ve 2025’te y\u00fczde 2,6 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu oran 2026 i\u00e7in ise y\u00fczde 4 olarak tahmin edildi.<\/p>\n

OECD, May\u0131s’taki raporunda, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 3,4 ve 2025’te y\u00fczde 3,2 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin etmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

Kurum Eyl\u00fcldeki de\u011ferlendirmesinde ise T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 3,2 ve 2025’te y\u00fczde 3,1 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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B\u00fcy\u00fcme \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 seyredecek, para ve maliye politikas\u0131 rotas\u0131nda kalmal\u0131 <\/b><\/p>\n

Rapora g\u00f6re, T\u00fcrkiye’de s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fan finansal ko\u015fullar ve devam eden mali konsolidasyon, hane halk\u0131 t\u00fcketimini s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131racak. Deprem sonras\u0131 yeniden yap\u0131lanma s\u00fcrecinin etkileri ge\u00e7tik\u00e7e, yat\u0131r\u0131m ve kamu t\u00fcketimi de yava\u015flayacak.<\/p>\n

Ancak d\u0131\u015f ortamdaki iyile\u015fme ve uluslararas\u0131 turizmde devam eden canlanmayla, T\u00fcrkiye’nin ihracat\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye’de cari i\u015flemler dengesi ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin itici g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin yeniden dengelenmesi, turizmdeki olumlu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ve Sakarya sahas\u0131ndaki do\u011fal gaz \u00fcretimiyle iyile\u015fme g\u00f6sterdi. D\u00f6viz rezervleri artarken, para ve maliye politikas\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 kalmaya devam edece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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OECD’ye g\u00f6re, para ve maliye otoritelerinin her ikisi de T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir bir patikaya oturtmak i\u00e7in politikalar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 tutma y\u00f6n\u00fcnde kararl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 yineledi. T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 politika faizini y\u00fczde 50’de tutarken, fiyat istikrar\u0131 do\u011frultusunda elindeki t\u00fcm ara\u00e7lar\u0131 kararl\u0131l\u0131kla kullanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n

Bu kapsamda, T\u00fcrkiye’de ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 seyredecek. Enflasyonu kontrol alt\u0131na almaya y\u00f6nelik tedbirler etkisini g\u00f6sterecek ancak enflasyon kademeli \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015fecek. OECD, T\u00fcrkiye’de enflasyonun y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalamada 2025’te y\u00fczde 30,7 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, 2026’da ise bu oran\u0131n y\u00fczde 17,2’ye gerileyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Rapora g\u00f6re, iyile\u015fen uluslararas\u0131 havadan tam olarak faydalanabilmek i\u00e7in yetkililerin, enflasyon hedeflere ula\u015fma yolunda sa\u011flam bir \u015fekilde ilerleyene kadar makroekonomik istikrar politikalar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi gerekiyor.<\/p>\n

\u0130stikrarl\u0131 ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir bir politika \u00e7er\u00e7evesi, istikrarl\u0131 bir makroekonomik ortamla birlikte uluslararas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u00e7ekebilir. Yap\u0131sal reformlar bu istikrar \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131 daha da destekleyebilir ve uzun vadeli b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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K\u00fcresel ekonomi i\u00e7in stabil bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc <\/b><\/p>\n

T\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkede hen\u00fcz salg\u0131n \u00f6ncesi seviyelere ula\u015fmam\u0131\u015f olsa da enflasyondaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f reel hane halk\u0131 gelir art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor. \u0130\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131lar hafiflemeye devam ederken, i\u015fsizlik genel olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyrediyor.<\/p>\n

Reel faiz oranlar\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 kalmaya devam ediyor ancak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck nominal getiriler, faize duyarl\u0131 konut ve kredi piyasalar\u0131nda baz\u0131 erken canlanma i\u015faretleri yarat\u0131yor. Hizmet sekt\u00f6rlerinde s\u00fcren bask\u0131lara ra\u011fmen bir\u00e7ok geli\u015fmi\u015f ve geli\u015fmekte olan piyasa ekonomisinde man\u015fet enflasyon hedef seviyeye d\u00f6nd\u00fc.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Bu kapsamda OECD, k\u00fcresel ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 3,2, 2025 ve 2026’da y\u00fczde 3,3 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyor. B\u00f6ylece, d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin gelecek 2 y\u0131lda genel olarak stabil bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme seviyesini korumas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

OECD, may\u0131sta yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm Raporu’nda, k\u00fcresel ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi bu y\u0131l ve 2025 i\u00e7in s\u0131ras\u0131yla y\u00fczde 3,1 ve y\u00fczde 3,2 olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Kurum, eyl\u00fclde yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ge\u00e7ici ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm raporunda da k\u00fcresel ekonominin bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 3,1 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fini tahmin etmi\u015f, 2025’e ili\u015fkin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc de y\u00fczde 3,2 olarak belirlemi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

B\u00f6ylece OECD, her iki y\u0131la ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6nceki tahminlerine g\u00f6re, y\u00fczde 0,1 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize etti.<\/p>\n

Ticarette korumac\u0131 politikalara ili\u015fkin uyar\u0131 <\/b><\/p>\n

Bu y\u0131l ABD ekonomisinin y\u00fczde 2,8 ve 2025’te y\u00fczde 2,4, \u00c7in ekonomisinin ise s\u0131ras\u0131yla y\u00fczde 4,9 ve y\u00fczde 4,7 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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OECD, ticarette korumac\u0131 politikalarda art\u0131\u015fa ili\u015fkin uyar\u0131da bulundu. Ticaret politikas\u0131 belirsizli\u011fi son y\u0131llarda artarken, b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomiler taraf\u0131ndan uygulanan bu ithalat\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 \u00f6nlemlerin say\u0131s\u0131nda s\u00fcregelen bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6zleniyor.<\/p>\n

K\u00fcresel ticaret k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 ithalat fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltirken, i\u015fletmeler i\u00e7in \u00fcretim maliyetlerini art\u0131rma ve t\u00fcketiciler i\u00e7in ya\u015fam standartlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrme riski olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Kaynak :\u00a0https:\/\/www.bloomberght.com\/oecd-turkiye-icin-2024-yili-tufe-beklentisini-yukseltti-3736196<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 ortalama T\u00dcFE beklentisini y\u00fczde 55,5’ten y\u00fczde 58,3’e \u00e7\u0131karan OECD, b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisini de y\u00fczde 3,4’ten y\u00fcze 3,5’e \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":19714,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[116,118,490,227,430],"manset":[],"class_list":["post-19713","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-buyume","tag-ekonomi","tag-ekonomik","tag-enflasyon","tag-politika"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19713","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19713"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19713\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19715,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19713\/revisions\/19715"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/19714"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19713"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19713"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19713"},{"taxonomy":"manset","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/manset?post=19713"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}