Alman Ekonomi Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc (IW), Alman i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 derneklerinin pahal\u0131 enerji, artan maliyet ve d\u00fc\u015fen ihracat\u0131n etkisiyle mevcut durumlar\u0131n\u0131 bir y\u0131l \u00f6ncesine g\u00f6re daha k\u00f6t\u00fc g\u00f6rd\u00fcklerini ve gelecek y\u0131l i\u00e7in karamsarl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 koruduklar\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi.<\/p>\n
\u0130\u015fveren odakl\u0131 IW, 49 i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 derne\u011fi ile ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi 2025’e y\u00f6nelik beklenti anketinin sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 duyurdu.<\/p>\n
Ankete g\u00f6re, Almanya’daki 49 i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 derne\u011finin 31’i ekonomide mevcut durumu 2023’ten daha k\u00f6t\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. 49 sekt\u00f6r temsilcisinden 20’si gelecek y\u0131l daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u00fcretim beklerken, sadece 16’s\u0131 2025\u2019te \u00fcretimde art\u0131\u015f bekliyor.<\/p>\n
Enerji ve i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc maliyet art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6nemli etkenlerden biri <\/b><\/p>\n
Dernekler, buna sebep olarak; a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 b\u00fcrokrasinin varl\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkati \u00e7ekerken, enerji, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc ve malzeme maliyetlerinin y\u00fcksekli\u011finin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra \u015firketlerin uluslararas\u0131 rekabete ayak uyduramamas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
IW raporunda, \u201cBu kez \u00e7o\u011fu sekt\u00f6rde hava k\u00f6t\u00fc. Ve 2025 i\u00e7in de pek umut yok. Alman ekonomisi derin bir kriz i\u00e7inde. Belirsiz k\u00fcresel durum ihracat\u0131 engelliyor ve kendi \u00fclkemizdeki siyasi kaos yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 engelliyor. Siyasetin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde nereye gidece\u011fini bilmeyenlerin yeni makinelere, teknolojilere veya ara\u00e7lara yat\u0131r\u0131m yapma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck.\u201d de\u011ferlendirmesi yap\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131 ve al\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda y\u00fcksek faiz, \u015firketlerin faaliyetlerini olumsuz etkilerken, ankete g\u00f6re, ekonomide gelece\u011fe y\u00f6nelik karamsarl\u0131k da \u00f6zellikle i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131 tehdit eden unsurlar aras\u0131nda g\u00f6steriliyor.<\/p>\n
Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131 i\u015ften \u00e7\u0131karma bekliyor <\/b><\/p>\n
Ankete kat\u0131lan derneklerin 25\u2019i gelecek y\u0131l sekt\u00f6rlerinde i\u015ften \u00e7\u0131karma beklerken, sadece 7 dernek istihdam\u0131n artmas\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyor.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
\u0130la\u00e7 sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde, havac\u0131l\u0131k ve uzay m\u00fchendisli\u011finde daha fazla istihdam beklenirken, sanayide, \u00f6rne\u011fin demir-\u00e7elik, makine m\u00fchendisli\u011fi ve in\u015faat sekt\u00f6rlerinde, daha az i\u015f imkan\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Raporda konuya ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmesine yer verilen IW Direkt\u00f6r\u00fc Michael H\u00fcther, \u201cAlman ekonomisi 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda da toparlanamayacak\u201d ifadesini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Alman \u015firketlerin kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011fu sorunlar\u0131n \u00e7oklu\u011funun \u201cendi\u015fe verici\u201d oldu\u011funu belirten H\u00fcther, \u201c\u00d6nceki krizler genellikle do\u011frudan tetikleyicilere sahipti, daha az kapsaml\u0131yd\u0131 ve bu nedenle ba\u015fa \u00e7\u0131kmak daha kolayd\u0131. \u015eimdi durum hem yurt i\u00e7inde hem de yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda belirsiz. Bir sonraki federal h\u00fck\u00fcmet yeniden s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir bir ekonomik perspektif olu\u015fturmal\u0131d\u0131r. Rakiplerimizi yeniden yakalayabilmemizin tek yolu bu\u201d notunu payla\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Alman ekonomisi b\u00fcy\u00fcmede zorluk ya\u015f\u0131yor <\/b><\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan, Almanya’n\u0131n halen “kendi \u00fcretti\u011fi b\u00fcrokrasi, kurallar ve prosed\u00fcrler alt\u0131nda ezildi\u011fi” belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
\u00dclke ekonomisi, “\u00c7ok az yat\u0131r\u0131m, \u00e7ok fazla b\u00fcrokrasi ve a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 y\u00fcksek lokasyon maliyetleriyle” s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131rken, i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f siyasi \u00e7alkant\u0131lar\u0131n ortas\u0131nda Avrupa’da ve uluslararas\u0131 alanda geride kalarak zemin kaybediyor.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak k\u00fcreselle\u015fme ve ucuz enerji girdilerine dayanarak \u00fccretlerin ve ya\u015fam standartlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesini sa\u011flayan Alman b\u00fcy\u00fcme modeli yap\u0131sal zorluklar ve jeopolitik risklerle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
K\u00fcresel ticarette korumac\u0131l\u0131k art\u0131p bir taraftan Rusya-Ukrayna Sava\u015f\u0131 enerji maliyetlerini y\u00fckseltirken, Almanya’n\u0131n reel GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi Kovid-19\u2019dan beri G7\u2019de en alt s\u0131ralarda yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ekonomide ABD ve \u00c7in’e ticari ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k, y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n yetersizli\u011fi ve k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fen demografik ko\u015fullar gibi zorluklar da ayr\u0131 bir sorun te\u015fkil ediyor.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
\u0130hracata ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 olan ve \u00fclkenin GSYH’nin neredeyse y\u00fczde 30’unu olu\u015fturan Alman sanayisi k\u00fcresel ekonomideki yava\u015flamadan, artan \u00c7in rekabetinden ve Rusya-Ukrayna Sava\u015f\u0131’ndan sonra y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndan olumsuz etkileniyor.<\/p>\n
Ekonomi, imalattaki kal\u0131ca zayf\u0131l\u0131k nedeniyle k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 koruyor <\/b><\/p>\n
Bu arada Alman ekonomisi, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u00fczde 0,3 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmesinin ard\u0131ndan y\u0131l\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u00fczde 0,2 b\u00fcy\u00fcme kaydederek teknik resesyona girmekten kurtuldu. Ekonomi, b\u00f6lgedeki di\u011fer \u00fclkelere oranla daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir rol oynayan imalat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki kal\u0131c\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131k nedeniyle k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 koruyor.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan gelen yo\u011fun rekabet, sanayideki yava\u015flama, artan faiz oranlar\u0131, konjonkt\u00fcrel riskler ve yap\u0131sal de\u011fi\u015fiklikler gibi nedenlerle b\u00fcy\u00fcmede zorluk ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Buna ek olarak, \u00fclkede koalisyon h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin kas\u0131mda b\u00fct\u00e7e tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 nedeniyle da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131 ekonomiyi \u015fubat ay\u0131ndaki erken se\u00e7imlere kadar siyasi belirsizli\u011fe soktu.<\/p>\n
\u00dclke ekonomisi, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l al\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeydeki enflasyonun sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc etkilemesi, y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131, d\u00fc\u015fen yat\u0131r\u0131mlar, zay\u0131f d\u0131\u015f talep ve faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksekli\u011fi gibi nedenlerle bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 0,3 darald\u0131.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Almanya, b\u00f6ylece G7 \u00fclkeleri i\u00e7inde k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclen tek \u00fclke oldu.<\/p>\n
K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme beklentisi <\/b><\/p>\n
Almanya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Bundesbank), ticarette korumac\u0131l\u0131ktan kaynaklanan tehditler, jeopolitik \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar ve yap\u0131sal de\u011fi\u015fim nedeniyle ekonominin bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 0,2 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmesini bekliyor.<\/p>\n
H\u00fck\u00fcmet de ekonomide bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 0,2 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Almanya, bu y\u0131l da k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcrse 2023’te oldu\u011fu gibi G7 ekonomileri aras\u0131nda daralan tek \u00fclke olacak.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Bu arada ocak ay\u0131nda yeniden ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 olarak yemin edecek olan Trump, se\u00e7imi kazan\u0131rsa d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azaltmak ve yerli \u00fcretimi desteklemek i\u00e7in g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergilerini \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Analistler, Trump’un AB ithalat\u0131na g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergileri yoluyla daha fazla korumac\u0131 bir politika uygulamas\u0131n\u0131n ihracata dayal\u0131 Alman ekonomisi i\u00e7in iyiye i\u015faret olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyor.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
ABD, Alman mallar\u0131n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck al\u0131c\u0131s\u0131 konumunda bulunurken \u00fclke, ihracat\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 10’unu ABD’ye yap\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Kaynak :\u00a0https:\/\/www.bloomberght.com\/alman-is-dunyasi-2025-icin-karamsar-3738077<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u0130\u015fveren odakl\u0131 Alman Ekonomi Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc taraf\u0131ndan (IW) 49 i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 derne\u011fi ile yap\u0131lan ankete g\u00f6re, i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 60’\u0131 ekonomideki mevcut duruma ili\u015fkin ‘ge\u00e7en y\u0131ldan k\u00f6t\u00fc’ tahmini yapt\u0131. Ankete kat\u0131lanlar\u0131n y\u00fczde 40’\u0131 gelecek y\u0131l daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u00fcretim \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":22341,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[453,118,80,256,785],"manset":[],"class_list":["post-22340","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-alman","tag-ekonomi","tag-is","tag-ulke","tag-yuksek"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22340","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22340"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22340\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":22342,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22340\/revisions\/22342"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/22341"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22340"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=22340"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22340"},{"taxonomy":"manset","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/manset?post=22340"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}