2025 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in T\u00fcrkiye b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck 2,6 ila en y\u00fcksek y\u00fczde 4 aras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fkenlik g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Genel olarak hem yurt i\u00e7i hem de yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 kurumlar tahminlerini 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize etti.<\/p>\n
2025-2027 d\u00f6nemini i\u00e7eren Orta Vadeli Program’da (OVP) b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefi bir \u00f6nceki programa g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 0,5’lik bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerek, y\u00fczde 4 olarak belirlendi.<\/p>\n
TCMB\u2019nin piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 anketinde ise 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi y\u00fczde 3,2’den y\u00fczde 3,1’e \u00e7ekildi.<\/p>\n
OECD, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde 2025 y\u0131l\u0131na ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini 0,1 puan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revizeyle y\u00fczde 3,1 olarak belirledi. Avrupa \u0130mar ve Kalk\u0131nma Bankas\u0131 (EBRD) ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin, b\u00fcy\u00fcme itici g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin yeniden dengelenmesi ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 g\u00fcvenindeki art\u0131\u015fla 2025’te y\u00fczde 3’e \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc kaydedildi.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 da b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekerek beklentisini y\u00fczde 3,9\u2019dan y\u00fczde 3,6 olarak de\u011fi\u015ftirdi.<\/p>\n
Baz\u0131 yabanc\u0131 kurumlar\u0131n beklentisi ise daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kald\u0131. IMF 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini y\u00fczde 2,7 olarak a\u00e7\u0131klarken, Fitch b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini revize ederek y\u00fczde 2,6 olarak belirledi.<\/p>\n
Enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede kritik y\u0131l <\/b><\/p>\n
2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda tepe noktas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6ren enflasyon, 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 boyunca hafifleyecek ancak \u00e7ift haneli rakamlarda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
OVP\u2019de 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 15,2 olan T\u00dcFE beklentisi y\u00fczde 17,5’e \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131. TCMB\u2019 de 2025 y\u0131l sonu tahminini y\u00fczde 14\u2019ten y\u00fczde 21\u2019e y\u00fckseltildi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. TCMB\u2019nin piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 anketinde ise piyasan\u0131n enflasyon beklentisi y\u00fczde 27,07 olarak a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Yabanc\u0131 kurumlar\u0131n 2025 y\u0131l sonu enflasyon beklentisi y\u00fczde 24 ila y\u00fczde 30 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fiyor. Buna g\u00f6re; IMF\u2019in beklentisi y\u00fczde 24, S&P\u2019nin y\u00fczde 24, JPMorgan\u2019\u0131n y\u00fczde 25 ve Deutsche Bank\u2019\u0131n y\u00fczde 25,4 olurken, Barclays\u2019in y\u00fczde 30,8 ve HSBC\u2019nin y\u00fczde 29 civar\u0131nda.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
D\u0131\u015f ticarette k\u00fcresel riskler <\/b><\/p>\n
2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte rekabet g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in ye\u015fil ve dijital d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc sa\u011flayacak politikalar hayata ge\u00e7irilmesi ve uluslararas\u0131 d\u00fczenlemelere uyum sa\u011flanarak, ihracat\u00e7\u0131 firmalar\u0131n d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc desteklenmesi i\u00e7in \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
OVP\u2019de 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda, ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n rekabet g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin ve dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7in uygun ko\u015fullarda finansmana eri\u015fimlerinin g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmesi hedefleniyor.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Trump 2.0 d\u00f6neminin ve ticaretteki k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131n\u0131n etkisi ise h\u00e2l\u00e2 belirsizli\u011fini koruyor. Ticarete getirilecek y\u00fcksek ek verilerin etkisi 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda en \u00e7ok merak edilen konular\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Cari a\u00e7\u0131kta iyile\u015fmenin devam etmesi bekleniyor <\/b><\/p>\n
2024 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n sonunda do\u011fru cari a\u00e7\u0131kta g\u00f6r\u00fclen iyile\u015fmenin 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda da devam etmesi bekleniyor. OVP kapsam\u0131nda, cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 2 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Uluslararas\u0131 Finans Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc (IIF), ortodoks politikalar\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesi halinde T\u00fcrkiye’ye yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki yerle\u015fik ki\u015filerin net sermaye giri\u015flerinin 2025’te artmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fini bildirdi.<\/p>\n
S&P ve Fitch’in T\u00fcrkiye’nin kredi notunu y\u00fckseltmelerinin ard\u0131ndan yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda yerle\u015fik portf\u00f6y sermayesi ve do\u011frudan yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n net giri\u015flerinin 2025’e kadar \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir \u015fekilde artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n tahmin edildi\u011fi kaydedilen raporda, yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda yerle\u015fik alacakl\u0131lardan net d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7lanman\u0131n ise yava\u015flayan reel GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ve zay\u0131f kredi talebinin etkisiyle azalmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fi aktar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Sanayi \u00fcretiminde gev\u015femenin etkileri izlenecek <\/b><\/p>\n
Sanayi \u00fcretimi, 2024 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki zay\u0131f performans\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde koruyarak belirgin bir toparlanma sinyali vermedi.<\/p>\n
Bu sebeple 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 ekonomide dengelenmenin ba\u015flanmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fi bir y\u0131l olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
2024 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n son ay\u0131nda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 250 baz puanl\u0131k faiz indirimi sonras\u0131 i\u015f ve sanayi d\u00fcnyas\u0131 bu karardan memnun g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda sanayide gev\u015femenin etkileri yak\u0131ndan izlenecek. Bununla birlikte Trump d\u00f6nemiyle k\u00fcresel dengedeki d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcmlerin de sanayi \u00fcretimi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik bir unsur olmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Kaynak :\u00a0https:\/\/www.bloomberght.com\/2025-te-turkiye-ekonomisini-ne-bekliyor-3738212<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" T\u00fcrkiye y\u00fcksek enflasyon ve buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k olarak para politikas\u0131ndaki s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fun etkisinin yo\u011fun bir \u015fekilde hissedildi\u011fi 2024’\u00fc geride b\u0131rak\u0131rken, 2025’te ekonomideki seyrin d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":22692,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[2066,116,488,117,330],"manset":[],"class_list":["post-22691","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-2025-yili","tag-buyume","tag-dis","tag-tahmin","tag-yuzde-2"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22691","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22691"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22691\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":22693,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22691\/revisions\/22693"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/22692"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22691"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=22691"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22691"},{"taxonomy":"manset","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/manset?post=22691"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}