{"id":23043,"date":"2025-10-05T00:37:22","date_gmt":"2025-10-05T00:37:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/?p=23043"},"modified":"2025-10-05T00:37:22","modified_gmt":"2025-10-05T00:37:22","slug":"jpmorgandan-tcmb-analizi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/2025\/10\/05\/jpmorgandan-tcmb-analizi\/","title":{"rendered":"JPMorgan&#8217;dan TCMB analizi"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><p>JPMorgan payla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 raporda TCMB&#8217;nin Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131nda beklentilerin \u00fczerinde faiz indirimine gitme nedenlerini s\u0131ralad\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Aralar\u0131nda Fatih Ak\u00e7elik&#8217;in de oldu\u011fu JPMorgan ekonomistleri, TCMB&#8217;nin Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 250 baz puanl\u0131k indirimle politika faizini y\u00fczde 47,5&#8217;e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc hat\u0131rlatarak &#8220;Bu indirim, 150 baz puanl\u0131k indirim beklentimizin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n<div>\n<p>Bunun birinci sebebi 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda toplant\u0131 say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n 12&#8217;den 8&#8217;e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesi. Karar, 2025&#8217;te uzun s\u00fcre daha y\u00fcksek faiz d\u00f6neminin devam edece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. \u0130kinci olarak asgari \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tahminimize paralel y\u00fczde 30 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fse de son d\u00f6nemdeki yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc enflasyon s\u00fcrprizlerinin ard\u0131ndan TCMB beklentilerinin alt\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Son olarak Banka enflasyonda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendi oldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ekti ve Aral\u0131k&#8217;ta bu \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fc teyit edildi.&#8221; ifadesine yer verdi.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>Kurum ekonomistleri, daha az toplant\u0131 yapmas\u0131 beklenen TCMB&#8217;nin 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda 3 kez 250 baz puan, 5 kez 200 baz puanl\u0131k indirime gitmesini bekliyor. Y\u0131l sonu politika faizi tahmini ise y\u00fczde 30.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 26 Aral\u0131k&#8217;taki toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizini 2,5 puan indirimle y\u00fczde 47,50 seviyesine indirmi\u015f, faiz koridorunu 600 baz puandan 300 baz puana daraltm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Banka b\u00f6ylece \u015eubat 2023&#8217;ten sonra ilk kez faiz indirimi ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Kaynak :\u00a0<span style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 249, 236); color: rgb(55, 58, 60); font-size: 14px;\">https:\/\/www.bloomberght.com\/jpmorgan-dan-tcmb-tahmini-3738636<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>JPMorgan Aral\u0131k enflasyonunun ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 1,03 ile y\u00fczde 1,5 olan beklentilerinin alt\u0131na geldi\u011fini, verinin TCMB&#8217;nin elini rahatlatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Kuruma g\u00f6re TCMB y\u0131l sonunda politika faizini y\u00fczde 30&#8217;a \u00e7ekecek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":23044,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[329,405,543,367],"manset":[],"class_list":["post-23043","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-baz","tag-faiz","tag-indirim","tag-toplanti"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23043","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23043"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23043\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":23045,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23043\/revisions\/23045"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/23044"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23043"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23043"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23043"},{"taxonomy":"manset","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/manset?post=23043"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}