K\u00fcresel piyasalarda Trump politikalar\u0131n\u0131n etkileri son d\u00f6nemin ana temas\u0131 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Trump, \u00c7in, Kanada ve Meksika gibi \u00fclkeleri tarifelerle hedef alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylerken, k\u00fcresel d\u00fczeyde de tarife konusunda geri ad\u0131m atmayaca\u011f\u0131 mesaj\u0131n\u0131 vermi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcm bu durum ilgili piyasalarda etkiler yaratt\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in’de etkiler g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor <\/b><\/p>\n
Goldman Sachs, “\u00c7in’in Trump ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131 2.0’\u0131n birincil hedefi olmas\u0131 muhtemel” diyor.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar \u015fimdiden buna g\u00f6re pozisyon al\u0131yor ve \u00fclkenin borsalar\u0131n\u0131 ve merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fen yuan\u0131 ve hisse senetlerini savunmaya zorluyor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in’in s\u0131k\u0131 bir \u015fekilde kontrol edilen para birimi, dolar\u0131n yetkililerin savundu\u011fu sembolik 7,3 yuan s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesiyle 16 ay\u0131n en zay\u0131f seviyesinde.<\/p>\n
Barclays, yuan\u0131n 2025 sonuna kadar dolar ba\u015f\u0131na 7,5 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve ABD’nin y\u00fczde 60 g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergisi uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir senaryoda 8,4 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
G\u00fcmr\u00fck vergileri olmasa bile, para birimi zay\u0131f bir ekonominin \u00c7in devlet tahvili getirilerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmesiy \u00c7in ekonomisine zarar verdi. ABD Hazine tahvili getirileriyle aradaki fark daha da a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
Analistler, \u00c7in’in ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergilerinin etkisini y\u00f6netmesine yard\u0131mc\u0131 olmak i\u00e7in yuan\u0131n daha da zay\u0131flamas\u0131na izin vermesini bekliyor, ancak bunu kademeli olarak yapacak.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Ani bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131na dair gizli korkular\u0131 \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131karacak ve hisse senetlerinin iki y\u0131ld\u0131r g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc en b\u00fcy\u00fck haftal\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan zaten zedelenmi\u015f olan g\u00fcveni daha da sarsacak.<\/p>\n
Vietnam ve Malezya gibi di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck Asya ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131na yat\u0131r\u0131m yapanlar da gergin.<\/p>\n
Euro risk alt\u0131nda <\/b><\/p>\n
Euro, ABD se\u00e7imlerinden bu yana y\u00fczde 5’in \u00fczerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fad\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fck para birimleri aras\u0131nda en fazla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc kaydetti. Euro\/dolar paritesi bu d\u00f6nemde 1,02 seviyesine kadar geriledi.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
JPMorgan ve Rabobank, tarife belirsizli\u011finin etkisiyle bu y\u0131l euro\/dolar\u0131n 1 seviyesine d\u00fc\u015febilece\u011fini tahmin ediyor.<\/p>\n
ABD, 1,7 trilyon dolarl\u0131k iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc mal ve hizmet ticaretiyle Avrupa Birli\u011fi’nin en \u00f6nemli ticaret orta\u011f\u0131 konumunda.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, bu y\u0131l Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n durgun bir ekonomiyi desteklemek i\u00e7in 100 baz puanl\u0131k faiz indirimi yapmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Ancak tarifelerin ABD enflasyonunu art\u0131rabilece\u011fini tahmin eden yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, Fed’in sadece 40 baz puanl\u0131k faiz indirimi yapmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor ve bu da dolar\u0131n Euroya olan cazibesini art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Zay\u0131flayan \u00c7in ekonomisi Avrupa’ya da zarar veriyor.<\/p>\n
ING Kur Stratejisti Francesco Pesole, \u00c7in ve AB’yi ayn\u0131 anda vuran tarifelerin “euro i\u00e7in \u00e7ok zehirli bir kar\u0131\u015f\u0131m” olabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Otomotiv sekt\u00f6r\u00fc <\/b><\/p>\n
Avrupa’da, otomobil hisseleri de tarife man\u015fetlerine kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6zellikle hassast\u0131r. Washington Post’un Trump yard\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n yaln\u0131zca kritik ithalatlar i\u00e7in ithalat vergileri ara\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair haberi \u00fczerine bir dizi otomobil ismi k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine neredeyse y\u00fczde 5 y\u00fckseldi, ancak daha sonra Trump makaleyi yalanlay\u0131nca d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ge\u00e7ti.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Sal\u0131n\u0131mlar, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n Nisan 2024’teki zirveden bu yana hisselerinin de\u011ferinin d\u00f6rtte birini kaybetti\u011fi ve g\u00f6receli de\u011ferlemelerinin d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc zaten durgun bir sekt\u00f6re kar\u015f\u0131 hassasiyetlerini vurguluyor.<\/p>\n
Barclays’\u0131n Avrupa hisse senedi stratejisi ba\u015fkan\u0131 Emmanuel Cau, izledi\u011fi ek vergi korkular\u0131na maruz kalan sekt\u00f6rler aras\u0131nda otomobillerin oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Di\u011ferleri temel ihtiya\u00e7 maddeleri, l\u00fcks mallar ve end\u00fcstriyel \u00fcr\u00fcnler olarak s\u0131raland\u0131.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
En fazla g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergisine maruz kalan Avrupa hisselerinden olu\u015fan Barclays sepeti, son alt\u0131 ayda ana piyasaya g\u00f6re yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 20-y\u00fczde 25 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Euro b\u00f6lgesi ekonomik zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131, Avrupa hisselerinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck performans\u0131n\u0131 da uzatabilir. STOXX 600 2024’te y\u00fczde 6 y\u00fckselirken, S&P 500 endeksi y\u00fczde 23 artt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Kanada gerginli\u011fi <\/b><\/p>\n
Kanada dolar\u0131, Trump’\u0131n Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda Kanada ve Meksika’ya uyu\u015fturucu ve g\u00f6\u00e7menlere bask\u0131 yapana kadar y\u00fczde 25 g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergisi tehdidinde bulunmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan keskin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fayarak d\u00f6rt y\u0131ldan uzun bir s\u00fcrenin en zay\u0131f seviyesine yak\u0131n.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Daha da d\u00fc\u015fme potansiyeli var. Goldman analistleri, piyasalar\u0131n b\u00f6yle bir g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergisi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yaln\u0131zca y\u00fczde 5 olarak fiyatland\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor ve bunun ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesinin pek olas\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnseler de, uzayan ticaret g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri riskleri canl\u0131 tutabilir.<\/p>\n
ING’den Pesole, Kanada’da ek faiz indirimleri gerektiren tam te\u015fekk\u00fcll\u00fc bir ticaret sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131 ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 1,50 seviyesine itebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Bu, \u015fu anki yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,43 seviyesinden yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 5 daha fazla zay\u0131flama anlam\u0131na gelecek.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Kanada Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Justin Trudeau’nun istifas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc daha da karma\u015f\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Meksika pesosu <\/b><\/p>\n
Meksika pesosu, Trump se\u00e7ildi\u011finde 2024’te dolara kar\u015f\u0131 zaten y\u00fczde 16 d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, bu y\u00fczden hem dolar i\u00e7in iyi hem de peso i\u00e7in k\u00f6t\u00fc bir\u00e7ok haber fiyatland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Pesonun 2024 performans\u0131, y\u00fczde 18,6’l\u0131k bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 2008’den bu yana en zay\u0131f y\u0131ll\u0131k performans\u0131yd\u0131. Meksika’n\u0131n ihracat\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 80’inin var\u0131\u015f noktas\u0131 olan ABD’den gelen tarife tehdidinin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 bir yarg\u0131 reformu da para birimini etkiledi.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Pazartesi g\u00fcnk\u00fc g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergisi haberi, Trump taraf\u0131ndan daha sonra yalanlansa da, pesonun y\u00fczde 2’ye kadar y\u00fckselmesine neden oldu, ard\u0131ndan kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131. Bu durum, ABD’nin g\u00fcney s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131ndaki ticaretin se\u00e7ilen ba\u015fkan i\u00e7in hedef olmaya devam etmesiyle birlikte oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n devam edebilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Kaynak :\u00a0https:\/\/www.bloomberght.com\/trump-kaynakli-riskler-en-cok-hangi-piyasalari-etkiledi-3738709<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u00c7in’den Avrupa’ya, Kanada’dan Meksika’ya kadar d\u00fcnya piyasalar\u0131, Donald Trump’\u0131n iki haftadan k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre sonra ABD ba\u015fkan\u0131 oldu\u011funda g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergilerini art\u0131rma vaadinden dolay\u0131 \u015fimdiden sars\u0131lm\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":23191,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[245,195,277,306,1893],"manset":[],"class_list":["post-23190","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-abd","tag-cin","tag-dolar","tag-trump","tag-zayif"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23190","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23190"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23190\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":23192,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23190\/revisions\/23192"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/23191"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23190"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23190"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23190"},{"taxonomy":"manset","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/manset?post=23190"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}