D\u00fcnya Ekonomik Forumu’nun (DEF) bu y\u0131l 55’incisi 20-24 Ocak’ta d\u00fczenlenecek y\u0131ll\u0131k toplant\u0131lar\u0131 \u00f6ncesi, Ba\u015fekonomistler G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc Raporu yay\u0131mland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Rapor, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen kamu ve \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6rden ba\u015fekonomistlerin kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve DEF taraf\u0131ndan organize edilen anket sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na dayan\u0131yor. Buna g\u00f6re, ara\u015ft\u0131rmaya kat\u0131lan ba\u015fekonomistlerin y\u00fczde 56’s\u0131 bu y\u0131l d\u00fcnyada daha zay\u0131f bir ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcrken y\u00fczde 17’si iyile\u015fme bekliyor.<\/p>\n
Ekonomistlerin y\u00fczde 44’\u00fcn\u00fcn ABD’de bu y\u0131l g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fini tahmin etmesine kar\u015f\u0131n, uzun vadeye y\u00f6nelik daha temkinli bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm hakim. Bu kapsamda ba\u015fekonomistlerin y\u00fczde 61’i ABD’deki ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7iminin k\u00fcresel ekonomi \u00fczerinde uzun vadeli etkisinin olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Ara\u015ft\u0131rmaya kat\u0131lanlar\u0131n y\u00fczde 97’si ABD’nin kamu bor\u00e7 seviyesinde art\u0131\u015f, y\u00fczde 94’\u00fc daha y\u00fcksek enflasyon beklerken risklerin devam etti\u011fini belirtiyor.<\/p>\n
Avrupa, \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131ld\u0131r ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan en zay\u0131f b\u00f6lge olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
Ekonomistlerin y\u00fczde 74’\u00fc Avrupa’da bu y\u0131l “zay\u0131f veya \u00e7ok zay\u0131f” ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme bekliyor.<\/p>\n
D\u00fcnyan\u0131n bir di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomisi \u00c7in’de ise, t\u00fcketici talebindeki durgunluk ve \u00fcretimdeki zay\u0131flama nedeniyle b\u00fcy\u00fcme ivmesinin zay\u0131flayaca\u011f\u0131, bu durumun k\u00fcresel ekonomideki toparlanman\u0131n daha dengesiz ve belirsiz olmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu y\u0131l ABD’de daha gev\u015fek bir para politikas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnen ekonomistlerin oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 64, Avrupa i\u00e7in ise y\u00fczde 81 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ekonomistlerin y\u00fczde 79’u \u00c7in’de de gev\u015fek bir para politikas\u0131 izlenece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n yay\u0131lma riski <\/b><\/p>\n
Ara\u015ft\u0131rmaya ili\u015fkin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f bildiren ba\u015fekonomistlerin y\u00fczde 94’\u00fc gelecek \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131lda k\u00fcresel mal ticaretinin daha par\u00e7al\u0131 bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme sahip olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, y\u00fczde 59’u da hizmet ticaretinde benzer bir e\u011filim g\u00f6r\u00fclmesini bekliyor.<\/p>\n
Ekonomistlerin d\u00f6rtte \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnden fazlas\u0131 i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc hareketlili\u011finin \u00f6n\u00fcndeki engellerin artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcrken, y\u00fczde 65’i teknoloji ve veri transferleri \u00fczerindeki k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131n da geni\u015fleyece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Yerel ve uluslararas\u0131 siyasi geli\u015fmeler, tedarik zincirlerinin yeniden d\u00fczenlenmesi ve g\u00fcvenlik endi\u015feleri, k\u00fcresel ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. Bu de\u011fi\u015fimlerin gelecek \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l boyunca i\u015fletmeler ve t\u00fcketiciler i\u00e7in maliyetleri art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131ndan endi\u015fe duyuluyor.<\/p>\n
Bu kapsamda ekonomistlerin y\u00fczde 91’i i\u015fletmelerin tedarik zincirlerini yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, y\u00fczde 90’\u0131 operasyonlar\u0131n\u0131 b\u00f6lgeselle\u015ftirece\u011fini ve y\u00fczde 79’u \u00e7ekirdek pazarlara odaklanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. S\u00f6z konusu geli\u015fmeler, k\u00fcresel ticaret a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha zor bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Ba\u015fekonomistlerin y\u00fczde 48’i bu y\u0131l k\u00fcresel ticarette b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklemesine ra\u011fmen, y\u00fczde 68’i, ABD ve \u00c7in’i a\u015fan bir ticaret sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n patlak verebilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Korumac\u0131 ticaret politikalar\u0131, tedarik zincirlerinin yeniden yap\u0131lanmas\u0131, yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar dahil olmak \u00fczere anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar, ulusal g\u00fcvenlik endi\u015feleri, teknolojik geli\u015fmeler ve k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme dinamikleri gibi fakt\u00f6rler, ticaret sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015fleme riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n y\u00fczde 82’si, gelecek 3 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde ticaretin daha fazla b\u00f6lgeselle\u015fece\u011fini tahmin ediyor.<\/p>\n
DEF Ekonomik B\u00fcy\u00fcme ve D\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Aengus Collins, rapora ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmesinde, sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n k\u00fcresel ekonominin ciddi bir bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini belirterek, “B\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc son on y\u0131llar\u0131n en zay\u0131f seviyesinde, yurt i\u00e7inde ve yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ya\u015fanan siyasi geli\u015fmeler ekonomi politikalar\u0131n\u0131n ne kadar tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 hale geldi\u011finin alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7iziyor. Bu ortamda, i\u015fbirli\u011fi ruhunu te\u015fvik etmek her zamankinden daha fazla kararl\u0131l\u0131k ve yarat\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k gerektirecektir.” ifadelerini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Her d\u00f6rt \u00fclkeden biri enerji arz s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131n dikkat \u00e7ekti <\/b><\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan, DEF anketine kat\u0131lan aralar\u0131nda ve Almanya, Hollanda ve Norve\u00e7’in de bulundu\u011fu her d\u00f6rt \u00fclkeden biri “enerji arz\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131n\u0131” kendilerine y\u00f6nelik ilk 5 risk aras\u0131nda g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n
Anket kapsam\u0131nda toplam 121 \u00fclkeden 11 binden fazla sekt\u00f6r \u00f6nderine , “\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 2 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde \u00fclkeniz i\u00e7in en b\u00fcy\u00fck tehdidi olu\u015fturmas\u0131 en muhtemel be\u015f risk hangileridir?” sorusu soruldu.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
S\u00f6z konusu \u00fclkelerden 30’u enerji tedarik s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 ya\u015famay\u0131 en b\u00fcy\u00fck 5 riskten biri olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc bildirdi. Risk listesi 34 maddeden olu\u015ftu. Bu kapsamda 9 \u00fclke enerji arz s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131na ilk s\u0131rada yer verdi.<\/p>\n
Buna g\u00f6re, enerji arz\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 bir numaral\u0131 risk olarak g\u00f6ren \u00fclkeler Zimbabve, Venezuela, Zambiya, Tayvan, G\u00fcney Afrika, K\u0131rg\u0131zistan, Liberya, Lesotho ve Honduras oldu.<\/p>\n
Enerjiye ili\u015fkin ya\u015fanabilecek arz s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131na ilk 5 risk aras\u0131nda yer veren \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda Almanya, Avustralya, \u00c7ad, Kamerun, Ekvador, Gabon, Irak, Japonya, \u0130zlanda, \u0130rlanda, Mali ve Malta yer ald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, Laos, Meksika, Hollanda, Norve\u00e7, Mo\u011folistan, Pakistan, Nijerya, \u0130svi\u00e7re ve \u00d6zbekistan da enerji arz\u0131na dair endi\u015feleri nedeniyle buna ilk 5 risk aras\u0131nda yer verdi.<\/p>\n
B\u00f6ylece de\u011ferlendirmede yer alan yakla\u015f\u0131k her d\u00f6rt \u00fclkeden biri enerjide arz s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 ya\u015fama tehlikesine dikkati \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Kaynak :\u00a0https:\/\/www.bloomberght.com\/kuresel-ekonomik-gorunum-belirsizliklerin-baskisi-altinda-3739348<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" K\u00fcresel\u00a0ekonominin bu y\u0131l artan bor\u00e7 y\u00fck\u00fc, siyasi belirsizlikler ve d\u00fcnyada i\u015fbirli\u011finin giderek zay\u0131flamas\u0131 sonucu olu\u015fan par\u00e7alanman\u0131n bask\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":24107,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[116,413,241,208,256],"manset":[],"class_list":["post-24106","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-buyume","tag-kuresel","tag-risk","tag-ticaret","tag-ulke"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24106","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=24106"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24106\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":24108,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24106\/revisions\/24108"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/24107"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=24106"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=24106"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=24106"},{"taxonomy":"manset","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/manset?post=24106"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}