Fitch, K\u00fcresel Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm Raporu’nun mart say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 “K\u00fcresel B\u00fcy\u00fcme Tahminleri, ABD’nin K\u00fcresel Ticaret Sava\u015f\u0131 Ba\u015flatmas\u0131yla Keskin \u015eekilde D\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc” ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131yla yay\u0131mlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Raporda, yeni ABD y\u00f6netiminin, ABD ve d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini yava\u015flatacak, ABD’de enflasyonu y\u00fckseltecek ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n (Fed) faiz indirimlerini geciktirecek k\u00fcresel bir ticaret sava\u015f\u0131 ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 aktar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
D\u00fcnya ekonomisinin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin bu y\u0131l trendin olduk\u00e7a alt\u0131nda olmas\u0131n\u0131n ve 2024’teki y\u00fczde 2,9 seviyesinden y\u00fczde 2,3’e gerilemesinin beklendi\u011fi belirtilen raporda, b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin 2026’da da y\u00fczde 2,2 ile zay\u0131f kalmaya devam edece\u011fi kaydedildi.<\/p>\n
Fitch, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l aral\u0131k ay\u0131ndaki tahminlerinde, k\u00fcresel ekonominin 2025’te y\u00fczde 2,6, 2026’da ise y\u00fczde 2,3 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini \u00f6ng\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Raporda, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revizyonun, geli\u015fmi\u015f ve geli\u015fmekte olan ekonomilerin b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131ndaki geni\u015f tabanl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade edildi.<\/p>\n
ABD ekonomisinin b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131n\u0131n trendin alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor <\/b><\/p>\n
ABD ekonomisine ili\u015fkin bu y\u0131lki b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisinin y\u00fczde 2,1’den y\u00fczde 1,7’ye, gelecek y\u0131lki beklentisinin ise y\u00fczde 1,7’den y\u00fczde 1,5’e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc belirtilen raporda, bu oranlar\u0131n trendin olduk\u00e7a alt\u0131nda ve 2023 ile 2024’teki neredeyse y\u00fczde 3 olan b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131ndan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu aktar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
Raporda, ABD’nin tarifeler konusunda ne kadar ileri gidece\u011fine dair b\u00fcy\u00fck bir belirsizlik oldu\u011funa i\u015faret edilerek, t\u0131rmanan k\u00fcresel ticaret sava\u015f\u0131 da dahil olmak \u00fczere daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir tarife \u015foku riskinin oldu\u011fu aktar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
Tarife art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n ABD’de t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesine, reel \u00fccretlerin d\u00fc\u015fmesine ve \u015firketlerin maliyetlerinin artmas\u0131na neden olaca\u011f\u0131 belirtilen raporda, politika belirsizli\u011findeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 olumsuz etkileyece\u011fi ifade edildi.<\/p>\n
Raporda, tarife \u015fokunun ABD’de k\u0131sa vadeli enflasyonu 1 puan art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 tahmin edildi\u011finden, Fed’in gev\u015femeyi 2025’in d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fine kadar erteleyece\u011finin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc aktar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
Fitch’in raporunda, Fed’in bu y\u0131l yaln\u0131zca bir kez faiz indirimine gitmesinin, ancak ekonomi yava\u015flad\u0131k\u00e7a ve tarife seviyeleri istikrar kazand\u0131k\u00e7a 2026’da \u00fc\u00e7 kez daha faiz indirimi yapmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fi kaydedildi.<\/p>\n
Euro B\u00f6lgesi’ndeki ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenden zay\u0131f olmas\u0131 tahmin ediliyor <\/b><\/p>\n
Raporda, \u00c7in ve Almanya’daki mali gev\u015femenin ABD’nin y\u00fcksek ithalat tarifelerinin etkisini hafifletece\u011fi, ancak bu y\u0131l Euro B\u00f6lgesi’ndeki b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin tahmin edilenden \u00e7ok daha zay\u0131f olaca\u011f\u0131 ifade edildi.<\/p>\n
Euro B\u00f6lgesi ekonomisinin bu y\u0131lki b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisinin y\u00fczde 1,2’den y\u00fczde 0,7’ye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc belirtilen raporda, gelecek y\u0131lki beklentisinin ise y\u00fczde 1,3’den y\u00fczde 1,1’e indirildi\u011fi kaydedildi.<\/p>\n
Raporda, Meksika ve Kanada’n\u0131n ABD ile yo\u011fun ticari ba\u011flar\u0131 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in teknik resesyonlar ya\u015fayaca\u011f\u0131 ve bu y\u0131la ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerinin s\u0131ras\u0131yla 1,1 puan ve 0,7 puan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc aktar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
Fitch’in raporunda Meksika ekonomisinin bu y\u0131la ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 0, Kanada ekonomisinin ise y\u00fczde 0,3 olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bildirildi.<\/p>\n
Raporda, \u00c7in ekonomisinin ise bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 4,4, gelecek y\u0131l ise y\u00fczde 4 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin tahmin edildi\u011fi kaydedildi.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine ili\u015fkin tahminlerin de yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 raporda, \u00fclke ekonomisinin bu y\u0131lki b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisinin y\u00fczde 2,6, gelecek y\u0131lki beklentisinin ise y\u00fczde 3,5 olarak korundu\u011fu belirtildi.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Kaynak :\u00a0https:\/\/www.bloomberght.com\/fitch-ticaret-savasi-nedeniyle-kuresel-buyume-tahminlerini-dusurdu-3744320<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Uluslararas\u0131 kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015fu Fitch Ratings, ABD’nin ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ticaret sava\u015f\u0131 nedeniyle k\u00fcresel ekonomiye ili\u015fkin bu y\u0131lki b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisini y\u00fczde 2,6’dan y\u00fczde 2,3’e, gelecek y\u0131lki beklentisini ise y\u00fczde 2,3’ten y\u00fczde 2,2’ye indirdi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":30301,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[245,2427,116,222,117],"manset":[],"class_list":["post-30300","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-abd","tag-bu-yil","tag-buyume","tag-raporda","tag-tahmin"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30300","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30300"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30300\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":30302,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30300\/revisions\/30302"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/30301"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30300"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30300"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30300"},{"taxonomy":"manset","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/manset?post=30300"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}