{"id":32118,"date":"2025-10-31T00:12:06","date_gmt":"2025-10-31T00:12:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/?p=32118"},"modified":"2025-10-31T00:12:06","modified_gmt":"2025-10-31T00:12:06","slug":"tcmb-martta-gida-fiyatlarindaki-artislarda-ramazan-ayinin-da-etkisi-var","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/2025\/10\/31\/tcmb-martta-gida-fiyatlarindaki-artislarda-ramazan-ayinin-da-etkisi-var\/","title":{"rendered":"TCMB: Mart’ta g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015flarda Ramazan ay\u0131n\u0131n da etkisi var"},"content":{"rendered":"

T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 (TCMB) blog yaz\u0131s\u0131nda, 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 Mart ay\u0131nda g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131nda g\u00f6zlenen y\u00fcksek oranl\u0131 art\u0131\u015flarda Ramazan ay\u0131 etkisinin de oldu\u011fu de\u011ferlendirildi.<\/p>\n

TCMB K\u0131demli Ekonomist Asl\u0131han Atabek Demirhan, Uzman Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Muhammed Bah\u00e7a ve Yard\u0131mc\u0131 Ekonomist S.Simin Bayraktar taraf\u0131ndan kaleme al\u0131nan “Ramazan Ay\u0131 ve G\u0131da Enflasyonu” ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 blog yaz\u0131s\u0131 Merkezin G\u00fcncesi sayfas\u0131nda yay\u0131mland\u0131.<\/p>\n

TCMB’nin blog yaz\u0131s\u0131 \u015f\u00f6yle:<\/p>\n

“T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan iktisadi \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar, Ramazan ay\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcretim ve fiyatlar \u00fczerindeki \u00f6nemine dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Bu yaz\u0131da, Ramazan ay\u0131n\u0131n fiyat istikrar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli role sahip g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki etkisini makro verilerin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra y\u00fcksek frekansl\u0131 mikro veriler kullanarak detayl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde inceliyoruz.<\/p>\n

2003-2024 y\u0131llar\u0131na ait ayl\u0131k enflasyon verilerini kullanarak g\u0131da ve alkols\u00fcz i\u00e7ecekler ile i\u015flenmi\u015f ve i\u015flenmemi\u015f g\u0131da i\u00e7in yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z analizler, Ramazan ay\u0131n\u0131n g\u0131da enflasyonu kalemleri \u00fczerinde farkl\u0131 etkileri oldu\u011funu ortaya koyuyor. G\u0131da ve alkols\u00fcz i\u00e7ecekler geneli ile i\u015flenmemi\u015f g\u0131da ayl\u0131k enflasyonu \u00f6zelinde Ramazan ay\u0131n\u0131n e\u015f zamanl\u0131 etkisine ek olarak \u00f6nc\u00fc ve gecikmeli etkilerinin oldu\u011fu; i\u015flenmi\u015f g\u0131da ayl\u0131k enflasyonu \u00fczerinde ise anlaml\u0131 bir etkisinin olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n

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Bulgular\u0131m\u0131z gerek \u00f6nceki \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar gerekse saha g\u00f6zlemleriyle uyumlu olarak; Ramazan ay\u0131n\u0131n g\u0131da ve alkols\u00fcz i\u00e7ecek fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n temel olarak i\u015flenmemi\u015f g\u0131da \u00fcr\u00fcnleri kaynakl\u0131 oldu\u011funu ima ediyor<\/p>\n

Ramazan\u2019\u0131n i\u015flenmemi\u015f g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki etkisini daha detayl\u0131 incelemek amac\u0131yla, Tar\u0131m ve Orman Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 Tar\u0131m \u00dcr\u00fcnleri Fiyat \u0130zleme Sistemi (T\u00dcF\u0130S) verilerini kullan\u0131yoruz. G\u0131da perakende sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde \u00f6nemli paya sahip zincir marketler ile yerel marketlere ait g\u00fcnl\u00fck fiyat verilerini i\u00e7eren T\u00dcF\u0130S, her \u00fcr\u00fcn i\u00e7in t\u00fcretilmi\u015f \u00f6zel kimlik kodlar\u0131 ile fiyatlar\u0131n \u00fcr\u00fcn ve market seviyesinde takibine olanak sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Se\u00e7ilmi\u015f i\u015flenmemi\u015f g\u0131da \u00fcr\u00fcnleri i\u00e7in 2022-2024 y\u0131llar\u0131na ait T\u00dcF\u0130S g\u00fcnl\u00fck verilerini kullanarak Ramazan ay\u0131n\u0131n ilk 15 g\u00fcn\u00fc 100 seviyesinde olacak \u015fekilde olu\u015fturdu\u011fumuz 15\u2019er g\u00fcnl\u00fck fiyat endekslerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da sunuyoruz.<\/p>\n

S\u00f6z konusu mikro d\u00fczey fiyat verileri, se\u00e7ilmi\u015f i\u015flenmemi\u015f g\u0131da \u00fcr\u00fcnleri fiyat dinamiklerinde Ramazan ay\u0131na \u00f6zg\u00fc farkl\u0131la\u015fmalara i\u015faret ediyor. Nitekim k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 et ve tavuk eti fiyatlar\u0131nda Ramazan ay\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde ba\u015flayan art\u0131\u015f e\u011filiminin Ramazan ay\u0131 boyunca ivmelendi\u011fi, Ramazan ay\u0131 sonras\u0131nda ise g\u00f6rece \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 seyretti\u011fi dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Ramazan ay\u0131n\u0131n bakliyat fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki etkisine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda fiyatlar\u0131n Ramazan ay\u0131 i\u00e7erisinde y\u00fckseldi\u011fini, \u00f6ncesi ve sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde ise g\u00f6rece yatay seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Yumurta fiyatlar\u0131nda ise, Ramazan ay\u0131 itibar\u0131yla art\u0131\u015f, sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nemde ise d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f izliyoruz. \u0130ncelenen t\u00fcm \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde Ramazan ay\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 hale gelme e\u011filiminde oldu\u011fu dikkat \u00e7ekiyor.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla gerek model gerekse y\u00fcksek frekansl\u0131 veri analizi, g\u0131da ve alkols\u00fcz i\u00e7ecekler ve i\u015flenmemi\u015f g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131nda Ramazan ay\u0131n\u0131n etkili oldu\u011funu ortaya koyuyor. Grafik 1\u2019de verilen katsay\u0131lar\u0131 kullanarak yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z hesaplamalar, 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda Ramazan ay\u0131n\u0131n \u015fubat ve mart aylar\u0131nda i\u015flenmemi\u015f g\u0131da enflasyonunda s\u0131ras\u0131yla 1,16 ve 3,53 puan; g\u0131da ve alkols\u00fcz i\u00e7ecekler enflasyonunda ise 0,75 ve 1,09 puan yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc etki olu\u015fturdu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor (Grafik 6 ve 7). Bu do\u011frultuda, 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda Ramazan ay\u0131n\u0131n man\u015fet enflasyona g\u0131da kaynakl\u0131 do\u011frudan etkisini yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,5 puan olarak hesapl\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n

\u00d6zetle, g\u00fcncel ve detayl\u0131 analiz bulgular\u0131m\u0131z, Ramazan ay\u0131nda g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde \u00f6zellikle i\u015flenmemi\u015f g\u0131da kaynakl\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir bask\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret etmekte. Bu ba\u011flamda 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 Mart ay\u0131nda g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131nda g\u00f6zlenen y\u00fcksek oranl\u0131 art\u0131\u015flarda Ramazan ay\u0131 etkisinin de oldu\u011fu de\u011ferlendirilmektedir.”<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Kaynak :\u00a0https:\/\/www.bloomberght.com\/tcmb-blog-mart-ta-gida-fiyatlarindaki-artislarda-ramazan-ayinin-etkisi-var-3745944<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

TCMB’nin blog yaz\u0131s\u0131nda “Mart’ta g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131nda g\u00f6zlenen y\u00fcksek oranl\u0131 art\u0131\u015flarda Ramazan ay\u0131 etkisinin de oldu\u011fu de\u011ferlendirilmektedir” a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 yap\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":32119,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[224,1249,3444,3442,3443],"manset":[],"class_list":["post-32118","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-fiyat","tag-gida","tag-islenmemis-gida","tag-ramazan-ayi","tag-ramazan-ayinin"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32118","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=32118"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32118\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":32120,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32118\/revisions\/32120"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/32119"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=32118"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=32118"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=32118"},{"taxonomy":"manset","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/manset?post=32118"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}