{"id":32612,"date":"2025-11-01T11:00:07","date_gmt":"2025-11-01T11:00:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/?p=32612"},"modified":"2025-11-01T11:00:07","modified_gmt":"2025-11-01T11:00:07","slug":"turkiyede-ekonomik-buyumenin-2026da-potansiyeline-geri-donecegini-dusunuyoruz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/2025\/11\/01\/turkiyede-ekonomik-buyumenin-2026da-potansiyeline-geri-donecegini-dusunuyoruz\/","title":{"rendered":"“T\u00fcrkiye’de ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin 2026’da potansiyeline geri d\u00f6nece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz”"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ekonomik Kalk\u0131nma ve \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc (OECD) T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisti Sebastien Turban, T\u00fcrkiye’nin mevcut ekonomi politikalar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesiyle iyile\u015fen uluslararas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 g\u00fcvenini daha ileri bir noktaya ta\u015f\u0131yabilece\u011fini belirterek, ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin 2026’da s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir b\u00fcy\u00fcme seviyesine d\u00f6nece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

OECD’nin ge\u00e7en hafta a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 “T\u00fcrkiye \u0130nceleme Raporu”nun yazarlar\u0131 aras\u0131nda yer alan Turban, rapordaki bulgular\u0131 ve T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine ili\u015fkin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerini AA muhabirine a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n

Turban, T\u00fcrkiye’de 2023 ortas\u0131ndan beri ya\u015fanan makroekonomik politikalardaki d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan, cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, enflasyon ve enflasyon beklentilerinin kademeli olarak d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc aktard\u0131.<\/p>\n

Enflasyonun hala y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc dile getiren Turban, “Para ve maliye politikalar\u0131ndaki uygulamalar, bizim \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerimizle uyumlu. Maliye ve para politikalar\u0131ndaki s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015f, enflasyon kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131nana kadar s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmeli. E\u011fer h\u00fck\u00fcmet, Orta Vadeli Program hedeflerine ula\u015f\u0131r ve uzun vadede bu seviyede b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 korursa, kamu borcu s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir olacakt\u0131r.” diye konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n

\n

Turban, \u015fu anda T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 ve maliye otoritelerinin bu duru\u015fu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc taahh\u00fctler verdi\u011fine i\u015faret ederek, “Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n ileti\u015fimine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, enflasyon kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131nana kadar para politikas\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 kalmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi ve faiz karar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon ve beklentiler do\u011frultusunda belirlenece\u011fi olduk\u00e7a net bir \u015fekilde ifade ediliyor.” dedi.<\/p>\n

Para politikas\u0131nda erken gev\u015femeye y\u00f6nelik bir risk olabilece\u011fini ancak bunun temel beklentilerinin d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda oldu\u011funu aktaran Turban, ana senaryolar\u0131n\u0131n makroekonomik politikalara y\u00f6nelik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc taahh\u00fcd\u00fcn s\u00fcrece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oldu\u011funu anlatt\u0131.<\/p>\n

Turban, makroekonomik politika duru\u015fundaki d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn T\u00fcrkiye’nin d\u0131\u015f pozisyonunu da iyile\u015ftirdi\u011fini ve br\u00fct rezervlerin son iki y\u0131lda \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 dile getirdi.<\/p>\n

Swaplar hari\u00e7 net rezervlerde de bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve net rezervlerin 2024’te 2020’nin ba\u015f\u0131ndan beri ilk kez pozitife d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc an\u0131msatan Turban, “Ancak, (son d\u00f6nemdeki geli\u015fmeler nedeniyle) \u015fu ana kadar ya\u015fanan azalma g\u00f6zlemlenebilir olsa da, bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f son 2 y\u0131ldaki birikim kadar y\u00fcksek de\u011fil. Bu a\u00e7\u0131dan, yine de rezervlerdeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olduk\u00e7a olumlu bir geli\u015fme olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.” dedi.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

T\u00fcrkiye’nin potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi y\u00fczde 4 seviyesinde <\/b><\/p>\n

Turban, s\u00f6z konusu makroekonomik politikalar \u00f6ncesinde T\u00fcrkiye’deki ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin “s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclemez derecede y\u00fcksek” oldu\u011funu belirterek, s\u0131k\u0131 para ve maliye politikas\u0131n\u0131n bu b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi daha s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir hale getirmeye yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

Bu y\u0131l T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin y\u00fczde 3,1 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini beklediklerini, her ekonomide oldu\u011fu gibi s\u0131k\u0131 para ve maliye politikas\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 dile getiren Turban, konu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 \u015f\u00f6yle s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc:<\/p>\n

“Bu b\u00fcy\u00fcme yava\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131n, \u00f6zellikle enflasyonu s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir bir yola geri getirmeyi ama\u00e7layan makroekonomik politikalar taraf\u0131ndan tetiklendi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Ard\u0131ndan, ekonomi normale d\u00f6nerken, mevcut \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerimize g\u00f6re, ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin 2026\u2019da y\u00fczde 3,9 ile potansiyeline geri d\u00f6nece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. OECD’ye g\u00f6re, T\u00fcrkiye’nin potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi y\u00fczde 4 seviyesinde. Potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme, ekonominin fazla enflasyonist bask\u0131 olu\u015fturmadan ne kadar b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fini g\u00f6sterir. \u015eu anki projeksiyonlar\u0131m\u0131za g\u00f6re, 2026’da T\u00fcrkiye’nin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi bu potansiyel seviyeye geri d\u00f6necek. Bu seviyelerde, enflasyona y\u00f6nelik yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fmaz.”<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

“S\u0131k\u0131 ekonomi politika duru\u015funun s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesi, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 g\u00fcvenini in\u015fa etmek i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli” <\/b><\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye’ye y\u00f6nelik uluslararas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 da de\u011ferlendiren Turban, makroekonomik politikalar\u0131n uyguland\u0131\u011f\u0131 son d\u00f6nemde yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n iyile\u015fmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bunun en \u00f6nemli kan\u0131tlar\u0131ndan birinin de kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n not art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

Turban, uluslararas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar aras\u0131nda daha y\u00fcksek bir iyimserlik oldu\u011funu belirterek, \u015funlar\u0131 kaydetti:<\/p>\n

“Ama hala gidilecek bir yol var. T\u00fcrkiye’ye gelen yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n, dalgal\u0131 sermaye ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131 de\u011fil, ekonomide daha kal\u0131c\u0131 olan do\u011frudan yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar olmas\u0131 \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli. Bu y\u00fczden, politika duru\u015funun s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesi gerekti\u011fini savunuyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 g\u00fcveni, zamanla daha da art\u0131r\u0131labilir. Son d\u00f6nemde ya\u015fananlara kar\u015f\u0131, Merkez Bankas\u0131 ve ekonomi otoritelerinin ileti\u015fiminden ve belirsizliklere kar\u015f\u0131 al\u0131nan kararlardan g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz, politikalar\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme taahh\u00fcd\u00fc mevcut. B\u00f6ylece, T\u00fcrkiye’ye g\u00fcven artabilir ve bu yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131 daha kal\u0131c\u0131 hale gelir.”<\/p>\n

OECD’nin T\u00fcrkiye \u0130nceleme Raporu <\/b><\/p>\n

OECD, ge\u00e7en haftaki T\u00fcrkiye \u0130nceleme Raporu’nda, s\u0131k\u0131 para ve maliye politikas\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesi tavsiyesinde bulunmu\u015f, mali disiplinin g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmesi, harcama verimlili\u011finin art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, vergi gelirlerinin geni\u015fletilmesi ve kapsay\u0131c\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi te\u015fvik etmek i\u00e7in yap\u0131sal reformlara ihtiya\u00e7 duyuldu\u011funu bildirmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

T\u00fcrkiye’nin ekonomik yak\u0131nsamay\u0131 ba\u015far\u0131yla s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesinin yap\u0131sal reformlar\u0131 hayata ge\u00e7irmesine ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ekilen raporda, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 3,1 ve 2026’da y\u00fczde 3,9 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi, enflasyonun ise bu y\u0131l sonunda y\u00fczde 31,4 ve 2026’da y\u00fczde 17,3 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fini tahminine yer verilmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

OECD verilerine g\u00f6re, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi son 10 y\u0131lda OECD \u00fclkeleri aras\u0131nda en h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen ekonomilerden biri oldu ve y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalama y\u00fczde 4,9 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Kaynak :\u00a0https:\/\/www.bloomberght.com\/oecd-turban-turkiye-de-ekonomik-buyumenin-2026-da-potansiyeline-geri-donecegini-dusunuyoruz-3746481<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

OECD T\u00fcrkiye Ekonomisti Sebastien Turban, “ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin 2026’da y\u00fczde 3,9 ile potansiyeline geri d\u00f6nece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz” dedi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":32613,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[116,118,430,3465,95],"manset":[],"class_list":["post-32612","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-buyume","tag-ekonomi","tag-politika","tag-turban","tag-turkiye"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32612","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=32612"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32612\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":32614,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32612\/revisions\/32614"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/32613"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=32612"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=32612"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=32612"},{"taxonomy":"manset","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/manset?post=32612"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}