Z\u00fcrih merkezli \u0130svi\u00e7re bankas\u0131 UBS’in analistleri yay\u0131mlad\u0131klar\u0131 notta T\u00fcrk liras\u0131n\u0131n eskisi kadar cazip olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 dile getirdiler.<\/p>\n
Tilmann Kolb ve Michael Bolliger\u2019\u0131n konuya ili\u015fkin per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc yay\u0131mlad\u0131klar\u0131 notta, \u201cUSDTRY \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k forward sat\u0131\u015f tercihimizle ifade etti\u011fimiz T\u00fcrk liras\u0131 lehine g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz, ini\u015fli \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015fl\u0131 bir yolculu\u011fun ard\u0131ndan hedeflenen vadesine ula\u015ft\u0131. \u0130\u015flemin ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131nda 38,7 olan g\u00f6sterge niteli\u011findeki vadeli kura kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 38,1 olan mevcut spot USDTRY kuru ile, ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7taki y\u00fczde 3\u2019l\u00fck getiri hedefimizden daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olan mevcut y\u00fczde 0,6\u2019l\u0131k toplam getiri i\u00e7in \u015fimdi k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck k\u00e2rlar\u0131 toplamay\u0131 tercih ediyoruz\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc dile getirdi.<\/p>\n
TCMB\u2019nin d\u00fcnk\u00fc faiz karar\u0131n\u0131n T\u00fcrk liras\u0131n\u0131n vadeli piyasalar taraf\u0131ndan fiyatlanan seviyeleri takip etmeye devam etmesi ya da biraz \u00fczerinde performans g\u00f6stermesini sa\u011flayabilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6ren stratejistler, \u201cBununla birlikte, yeni lira carry trade pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n veya \u00f6nceki pozisyonlar\u0131 geni\u015fletmenin \u00e7ekicili\u011finin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz\u201d ifadesini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Raporda TL’nin \u00e7ekicili\u011finin neden azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6rt noktada \u00f6zetlendi:<\/p>\n
\u201c\u0130lk olarak, TCMB\u2019nin d\u00f6viz rezervleri Mart ortas\u0131ndan bu yana yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 yo\u011fun m\u00fcdahaleler sonucunda \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde zay\u0131flad\u0131 ve lira \u00fczerinde yeni bir bask\u0131 olmas\u0131 durumunda daha fazla d\u00f6viz sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in fonlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
“Makroekonomik politikalara y\u00f6nelik kamuoyu deste\u011fi azalabilir” <\/b><\/p>\n
\u0130kinci olarak, Ocak ay\u0131ndan bu yana devam eden kademeli dolarizasyon e\u011filimi, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de yerle\u015fik ki\u015filerin liraya olan g\u00fcveninin Mart ay\u0131ndaki lira \u00e7alkant\u0131s\u0131 ve Nisan ay\u0131ndaki ABD g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergisi \u015fokundan \u00f6nce bile zay\u0131flam\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir dolarizasyon hamlesi, d\u00f6viz rezervi sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 veya kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6nlem olarak daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131, TCMB\u2019nin eylem se\u00e7eneklerini daha da s\u0131n\u0131rlayaca\u011f\u0131ndan veya i\u00e7 ekonomi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturaca\u011f\u0131ndan, muhtemelen TCMB i\u00e7in zorluk olu\u015fturacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc olarak, enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede kaydedilen ilerlemenin zaman almas\u0131 ve ekonomik faaliyet \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturmas\u0131 nedeniyle mevcut makroekonomik politikalara y\u00f6nelik kamuoyu deste\u011fi azalabilir.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, piyasalar i\u00e7 siyasi dinamikler konusunda temkinli olmaya devam ediyor. \u0130ktidar ve muhalefet partileri aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7eki\u015fmeli zemin, T\u00fcrk varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n fiyatlanan risk primlerinde daha fazla art\u0131\u015fa maruz kalmas\u0131na neden olabilir.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Kaynak :\u00a0https:\/\/www.bloomberght.com\/ubs-tl-nin-gorunumu-eskisi-kadar-cazip-degil-3746750<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" T\u00fcrkiye’de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00f6viz rezerv seviyeleri, dolarizasyon, potansiyel politika yorgunlu\u011funun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra g\u00fcmr\u00fck tarifelerinin belirsizlik yaratmas\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn zay\u0131flamas\u0131 nedeniyle risklerin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnen UBS analistleri, liradaki mevcut carry pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmay\u0131 veya yeni carry pozisyonlar\u0131na girmeyi tercih etmediklerini belirttiler.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":32853,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[121,156],"manset":[],"class_list":["post-32852","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-lira","tag-turk"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32852","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=32852"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32852\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":32854,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32852\/revisions\/32854"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/32853"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=32852"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=32852"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=32852"},{"taxonomy":"manset","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/manset?post=32852"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}