{"id":37972,"date":"2025-11-27T13:00:06","date_gmt":"2025-11-27T13:00:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/?p=37972"},"modified":"2025-11-27T13:00:06","modified_gmt":"2025-11-27T13:00:06","slug":"uea-petrol-piyasalari-yapisal-donusum-surecinde","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/2025\/11\/27\/uea-petrol-piyasalari-yapisal-donusum-surecinde\/","title":{"rendered":"UEA: Petrol piyasalar\u0131 yap\u0131sal d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm s\u00fcrecinde"},"content":{"rendered":"

K\u00fcresel petrol piyasalar\u0131, arz ve talep dinamiklerini \u015fekillendiren temel unsurlar\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fmesiyle k\u00f6kl\u00fc bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm s\u00fcrecinden ge\u00e7iyor.<\/p>\n

Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131’n\u0131n h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerin mevcut politikalar\u0131 ve piyasa e\u011filimlerine g\u00f6re haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 “Petrol 2025” orta vadeli piyasa raporuna g\u00f6re, son on y\u0131lda petrol piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n seyrini ABD’nin arz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve \u00c7in’in talep b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi belirlerken, gelecek d\u00f6nemde bu iki \u00fclkenin k\u00fcresel petrol dengesi \u00fczerindeki etkisinin azalmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

Rapora g\u00f6re, 2015-2024 d\u00f6neminde k\u00fcresel arz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 90\u2019\u0131 ABD\u2019den gelirken, talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 60\u2019\u0131 \u00c7in kaynakl\u0131 oldu. Ancak 2030’a do\u011fru ilerledik\u00e7e tablo de\u011fi\u015fiyor. ABD’de yat\u0131r\u0131m e\u011filimlerinin zay\u0131flamas\u0131 \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcrken, \u00c7in’de elektrikli ara\u00e7 sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f, s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011falgazla (LNG) \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan kamyonlar\u0131n yayg\u0131nla\u015fmas\u0131 ve y\u00fcksek h\u0131zl\u0131 tren a\u011f\u0131n\u0131n geli\u015fmesi talebin zirveye ula\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 beraberinde getiriyor.<\/p>\n

K\u00fcresel petrol talebinin 2024-2030 d\u00f6neminde toplamda 2,5 milyon varil artarak g\u00fcnl\u00fck 105,5 milyon varilde plato yapmas\u0131 bekleniyor. 2025 ve 2026 y\u0131llar\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama 700 bin varil d\u00fczeyinde seyrederken, sonraki y\u0131llarda \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yava\u015fl\u0131yor. Mevcut politikalar ve piyasa e\u011filimleri do\u011frultusunda 2030 itibar\u0131yla k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir talep d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

\n

Bu yava\u015flamada k\u00fcresel ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin potansiyelin alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra ula\u015f\u0131m ve elektrik \u00fcretiminde petrolden uzakla\u015fma e\u011filimi etkili oluyor. UEA, 2025\u2019te elektrikli ara\u00e7 sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n 20 milyonu a\u015farak toplam otomobil sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6rtte birine ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bunun on y\u0131l sonunda g\u00fcnl\u00fck 5,4 milyon varillik petrol talebini ortadan kald\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyor.<\/p>\n

Elektrik \u00fcretiminde de benzer bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u00d6zellikle Suudi Arabistan gibi \u00fclkelerde petrol\u00fcn yerini do\u011fal gaz ve yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n almas\u0131, bu alandaki talebi \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde azaltacak. UEA’ya g\u00f6re, Suudi Arabistan bu d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcmle 2030’a kadar \u00fclke baz\u0131nda en b\u00fcy\u00fck petrol talebi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc ya\u015fayacak.<\/p>\n

Arz kapasitesi talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 geride b\u0131rakacak <\/b><\/p>\n

Rapora g\u00f6re, 2026 sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nemde petrokimya sekt\u00f6r\u00fc, k\u00fcresel talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ana kayna\u011f\u0131 olacak. Sekt\u00f6r, 2030 itibar\u0131yla k\u00fcresel petrol talebinin alt\u0131da birini olu\u015fturacak. Petrokimya hammaddeleri ve biyoyak\u0131tlar hari\u00e7 tutuldu\u011funda, yak\u0131t ama\u00e7l\u0131 petrol talebinin 2027 gibi erken bir tarihte zirve yapabilece\u011fi de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Jet yak\u0131t\u0131 t\u00fcketiminin ise b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye devam edece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

Petrokimyasallar\u0131n \u00e7o\u011funlukla rafine edilmemi\u015f \u00fcr\u00fcnlerden elde edildi\u011fi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bu e\u011filimlerin rafinaj sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc de etkilemesi bekleniyor. 2027’de g\u00fcnl\u00fck 86,3 milyon varil ile zirve yapmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen k\u00fcresel rafine \u00fcr\u00fcn talebi, 2024 seviyesinin yaln\u0131zca 710 bin varil \u00fczerinde olacak. 2030’a kadar rafineri kapasitesinin talebi a\u015fmas\u0131 nedeniyle baz\u0131 tesislerin kapanabilece\u011fi belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n

K\u00fcresel petrol \u00fcretim kapasitesinin ise Suudi Arabistan ve ABD \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde 2030’a kadar 5,1 milyon varil art\u0131\u015fla g\u00fcnl\u00fck 114,7 milyon varile ula\u015fmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu da arz kapasitesinin talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde geride b\u0131rakaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n

UEA Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Fatih Birol rapora ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmesinde, “Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz on y\u0131la bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, ABD kaya petrol\u00fc devrimi sayesinde k\u00fcresel arz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 90’\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131larken, \u00c7in tek ba\u015f\u0131na talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 60\u2019\u0131n\u0131 \u00fcstlendi. Ancak bu dinamikler de\u011fi\u015fiyor. Temel g\u00f6stergelere g\u00f6re, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131llarda petrol piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n iyi bir \u015fekilde arz edilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.” ifadelerini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n

Birol, son geli\u015fmelerin petrol arz g\u00fcvenli\u011fine dair jeopolitik risklerin ne kadar ciddi oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekerek, “Enerji g\u00fcvenli\u011fi s\u00f6z konusu oldu\u011funda rehavete yer yok. UEA olarak \u00fcretici ve t\u00fcketici \u00fclkelerle i\u015f birli\u011fimizi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeye kararl\u0131y\u0131z.” de\u011ferlendirmesinde bulundu.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Kaynak :\u00a0https:\/\/www.bloomberght.com\/uea-petrol-piyasalari-yapisal-donusum-surecinde-3750684<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131 (UEA) petrol piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n arz ve talep dinamiklerindeki de\u011fi\u015fimle yap\u0131sal d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm s\u00fcrecinde oldu\u011funu belirtti.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":37973,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[1379,223,1097,244,379],"manset":[],"class_list":["post-37972","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-1379","tag-artis","tag-arz","tag-petrol","tag-piyasa"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37972","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37972"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37972\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":37974,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37972\/revisions\/37974"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/37973"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37972"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37972"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37972"},{"taxonomy":"manset","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/manset?post=37972"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}