{"id":45027,"date":"2025-12-27T04:36:07","date_gmt":"2025-12-27T04:36:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/?p=45027"},"modified":"2025-12-27T04:36:07","modified_gmt":"2025-12-27T04:36:07","slug":"deutsche-bank-ekonomistinden-tcmb-beklentisi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/2025\/12\/27\/deutsche-bank-ekonomistinden-tcmb-beklentisi\/","title":{"rendered":"Deutsche Bank ekonomistinden TCMB beklentisi"},"content":{"rendered":"

Deutsche Bank T\u00fcrkiye Ekonomisti Yi\u011fit Onay Bloomberg HT’de Sevcan Ers\u00f6zl\u00fc’n\u00fcn sorular\u0131n\u0131 yan\u0131tlad\u0131.<\/p>\n

Yeni Orta Vadeli Program’\u0131 (OVP) de\u011ferlendiren Onay OVP’de \u00f6ncekine k\u0131yasla daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme patikas\u0131, enflasyonda da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirterek “2025 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 3,3 gelecek 3,8’lik b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131 bizim tahminlerimizle de yak\u0131n. Program asl\u0131nda enflasyonda da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. 2025 sonu i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 28,5’lik hedefin MB’nin tahmin band\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcst dilimi olan y\u00fczde 29’un ve bizim 29,5’lik tahminimizin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyebiliriz.” dedi.<\/p>\n

“2026 ve sonras\u0131 i\u00e7in enflasyon tahminleri bir miktar iyimser” <\/b><\/p>\n

OVP program\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon hedefleriyle k\u0131yaslan\u0131nca iyimser bir g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc \u00e7izdi\u011fini kaydeden Onay “Ekonomide gaza bas\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, di\u011fer yandan ekonomiyi ani bir \u015fekilde durdurmamak ad\u0131na da h\u0131zl\u0131 bir fren yap\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karan bir senaryo \u00e7iziyor. \u00d6zellikle 2026 ve sonras\u0131 i\u00e7in enflasyon tahminlerini bir miktar iyimser buldu\u011fumuzu s\u00f6yleyebiliriz” dedi.<\/p>\n

“250 – 300 baz puan indirim ihtimalini de d\u0131\u015flam\u0131yoruz” <\/b><\/p>\n

Bu hafta TCMB’den 200 baz puanl\u0131k faiz indirimi bekledi\u011fini belirten Onay y\u0131l sonu politika faizi beklentisinin y\u00fczde 37 oldu\u011funu dile getirdi.<\/p>\n

Onay “Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 ile birlikte beklentilerden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelen b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve enflasyon verileri ve tabi i\u00e7 g\u00fcndemde ya\u015fanan geli\u015fmeler nedeniyle Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n temkinli kalarak 200 baz puan indirimle yola devam edece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz” de\u011ferlendirmesini yapt\u0131. 250 – 300 baz puan indirim ihtimalini de d\u0131\u015flamad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 kaydeden Onay “TCMB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Karahan’\u0131n ge\u00e7en haftaki konu\u015fmas\u0131nda enflasyon konusundaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnceleri bu beklentiyi g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Reel faizin hala y\u00fcksek seviyelerini de dikkate al\u0131rsak MB’nin bir alan\u0131 var” dedi.<\/p>\n

\n

“Enflasyonun y\u00fczde 30’larda tak\u0131l\u0131p kalma riski d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck” <\/b><\/p>\n

Orta vadede enflasyonun y\u00fczde 30’larda tak\u0131l\u0131p kalma riskini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6rd\u00fcklerini kaydeden Onay “kur istikrar\u0131, \u00fccret bask\u0131lar\u0131, i\u00e7 talepte ilave zay\u0131flama beklentisi ve beklentilerdeki kademeli iyile\u015fmen enflasyon ana e\u011filiminde \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde ilave iyile\u015fme ihtimalini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Programa ba\u011fl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n devam etti\u011fi s\u00fcre\u00e7te baz\u0131 geli\u015fmeler ya\u015fansa da enflasyonun y\u00fczde 30’larda kalma riskini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. 2026’da y\u00fczde 20’ye yakla\u015fma h\u0131z\u0131 \u00f6nemli olacak. Y\u00fczde 20 seviyesini orta vadede enflasyon kat\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve beklentiler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli bir e\u015fik olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz” yorumunu yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n

“Cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131 kur istikrar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli” <\/b><\/p>\n

Kur istikrar\u0131na de\u011finen Onay OVP’de \u00e7izilen makro \u00e7er\u00e7evenin ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i k\u0131l\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131n kur istikrar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011funu dile getirdi.<\/p>\n

Onay “Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n yurt i\u00e7i yerle\u015fiklerin d\u00f6viz talebini s\u0131n\u0131rlamada ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 ilerledi. Ancak dolar\u0131n geldi\u011fi seviyeler d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcnce buradan destek almak gelecek d\u00f6nemde kolay olmayacak. Yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n carry pozisyonlar\u0131nda mevcut limitlere yakla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyoruz dolay\u0131s\u0131yla limitlerde esneme olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 takdirde bu kanal ile ciddi bir d\u00f6viz giri\u015fi beklemiyoruz. \u015eu an en ihtiya\u00e7 duyulan finansman kayna\u011f\u0131 do\u011frudan yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar. Bu kanal ile y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana giri\u015flerin de s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fck.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131 kur istikrar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6nem arz ediyor. Bu durum da asl\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131, i\u00e7 talebin kontrol alt\u0131nda tutulmas\u0131 ve TL’ye g\u00fcvenin devam etmesiyle m\u00fcmk\u00fcn diyebiliriz” ifadelerini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Kaynak :\u00a0https:\/\/www.bloomberght.com\/deutsche-bank-ekonomistinden-tcmb-beklentisi-3756750<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Deutsche Bank T\u00fcrkiye Ekonomisti Yi\u011fit Onay Bloomberg HT’nin sorular\u0131n\u0131 yan\u0131tlad\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":45028,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[329,227,4208,177,117],"manset":[],"class_list":["post-45027","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-baz","tag-enflasyon","tag-kalma","tag-onay","tag-tahmin"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45027","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45027"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45027\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":45029,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45027\/revisions\/45029"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/45028"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45027"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45027"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45027"},{"taxonomy":"manset","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/manset?post=45027"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}