{"id":45087,"date":"2025-12-27T08:36:07","date_gmt":"2025-12-27T08:36:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/?p=45087"},"modified":"2025-12-27T08:36:07","modified_gmt":"2025-12-27T08:36:07","slug":"morgan-ve-stancharttan-turkiye-analizi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/2025\/12\/27\/morgan-ve-stancharttan-turkiye-analizi\/","title":{"rendered":"Morgan ve StanChart’tan T\u00fcrkiye analizi"},"content":{"rendered":"

Morgan Stanley, son siyasi geli\u015fmelerin piyasada yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirsizli\u011fin ard\u0131ndan T\u00fcrkiye’nin makroekonomik politikalar\u0131n\u0131n rotas\u0131n\u0131 koruyaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve “\u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 diren\u00e7” sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n

Ankara ve \u0130stanbul ziyaretinin ard\u0131ndan Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc yay\u0131mlanan rapora g\u00f6re, Hande K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck liderli\u011findeki ekonomistler, T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n (TCMB) “yurt i\u00e7inde ya\u015fanan geli\u015fmeler ortas\u0131nda kurda istikrar\u0131 desteklemek ve yurt i\u00e7i tasarruf sahiplerinin d\u00f6viz talebini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in politika alan\u0131 oldu\u011funu (rezervler, faiz oranlar\u0131 ve makro ihtiyati ara\u00e7lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan)” belirtti.<\/p>\n

Morgan Stanley, i\u00e7 talebin dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, hizmet enflasyonundaki yap\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131k ve y\u00fcksek beklentiler g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecinin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l da devam edece\u011fini ancak h\u00fck\u00fcmetin hedeflerinden daha yava\u015f bir h\u0131zda olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin etti.<\/p>\n

Raporda “Orta Vadeli Program, “dezenflasyonu desteklemek i\u00e7in zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve kademeli mali konsolidasyon \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve kamu taraf\u0131ndan belirlenen \u00fccret ve fiyatlar\u0131n enflasyon hedefleriyle uyumlu hale getirilece\u011fini taahh\u00fct ediyor” de\u011ferlendirmeleri yer ald\u0131.<\/p>\n

\n

Rapordaki \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclere g\u00f6re, enflasyonun y\u0131l sonunda y\u00fczde 30’a, 2026 sonunda ise y\u00fczde 21’e d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi; politika faizinin ise 2025 sonunda y\u00fczde 37 ve 2026 sonunda y\u00fczde 26 olaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin edildi.<\/p>\n

StanChart faiz indirim beklentisini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti <\/b><\/p>\n

Standard Chartered’\u0131n notuna g\u00f6re ise, T\u00fcrkiye’deki para politikas\u0131n\u0131n siyasi geli\u015fmeler nedeniyle “ihtiyatl\u0131 kalmas\u0131n\u0131n muhtemel oldu\u011fu” belirtildi.<\/p>\n

Banka 11 Eyl\u00fcl’deki faiz indiriminin \u00f6nceki tahmini olan 250 baz puan yerine 200 baz puan olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n

Standard Chartered Ekonomisti Carla Slim, bu duruma “de\u011fi\u015fken i\u00e7 siyasi zemin,” beklenenden daha iyi gelen ikinci \u00e7eyrek GSY\u0130H b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ve beklenenden y\u00fcksek \u00e7\u0131kan A\u011fustos T\u00dcFE verilerini gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n

Slim, “Siyasi geli\u015fmeler; d\u00f6viz, enflasyon ve faiz oran\u0131 dinamikleri i\u00e7in olumsuz riskler olu\u015fturmaya devam ediyor” ifadelerini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n

Slim, siyasi geli\u015fmeler T\u00fcrk liras\u0131nda zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa ve daha y\u00fcksek enflasyon beklentilerine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmedik\u00e7e dezenflasyonun devam edece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Kaynak :\u00a0https:\/\/www.bloomberght.com\/morgan-ve-stanchart-tan-turkiye-analizi-3756791<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Morgan Stanley, 2025 sonunda politika faizinin y\u00fczde 37 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":45088,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[227,405,4211,1056],"manset":[],"class_list":["post-45087","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-enflasyon","tag-faiz","tag-gelismeler","tag-siyasi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45087","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45087"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45087\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":45089,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45087\/revisions\/45089"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/45088"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45087"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45087"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45087"},{"taxonomy":"manset","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/manset?post=45087"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}