{"id":9632,"date":"2024-08-23T06:48:06","date_gmt":"2024-08-23T06:48:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/?p=9632"},"modified":"2024-08-23T06:48:06","modified_gmt":"2024-08-23T06:48:06","slug":"jackson-hole-oncesi-okumaniz-gereken-ongoruler","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/2024\/08\/23\/jackson-hole-oncesi-okumaniz-gereken-ongoruler\/","title":{"rendered":"Jackson Hole \u00f6ncesi okuman\u0131z gereken \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcler"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Jerome Powell’\u0131n faiz indirimlerinin patikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin sinyaller vermesi beklenen 2024 Jackson Hole Ekonomi Politikalar\u0131 Sempozyumu konu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye saatiyle 17:00\u2019de yapacak.<\/p>\n

Bloomberg ABD Ba\u015fekonomisti Anna Wong, Powell\u2019\u0131n konu\u015fmas\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n istenen sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 verdi\u011fini ve oranlar\u0131n yeterince k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 oldu\u011funu vurgulamas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor.<\/p>\n

Powell\u2019\u0131n \u201cenflasyon d\u00fc\u015ferken ve i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 normalle\u015firken, Fed\u2019in yak\u0131n zamanda politika faizlerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesinin uygun olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d belirtece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6ren Wong, istihdam konusundaki endi\u015felerin daha fazla \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnde.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Wong, \u201cFed\u2019in ikili g\u00f6revinin tam istihdam aya\u011f\u0131n\u0131n korunmas\u0131 art\u0131k daha fazla dikkat gerektiriyor. Faiz indirimlerinin boyutu ve h\u0131z\u0131na ili\u015fkin gelecekteki politika m\u00fczakereleri, istihdam piyasas\u0131 ve enflasyonun g\u00f6receli riskini tartan bir risk y\u00f6netimi yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131na dayanacakt\u0131r\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n

Ekonomist, \u201c(Powell\u2019\u0131n) Faiz indiriminin yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair sinyal vermesini ve \u00f6zellikle de 6 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak a\u011fustos ay\u0131 istihdam raporuna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak 25 baz puan ya da 50 baz puanl\u0131k bir indirime a\u00e7\u0131k oldu\u011funu belirtmesini bekliyoruz\u201d de\u011ferlendirmesini yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n

Ancak Wong, Powell\u2019dan indirimin 25 baz puan m\u0131 yoksa 50 baz puan m\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik a\u00e7\u0131k bir sinyal ise beklemiyor. ABD\u2019de i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n A\u011fustos ay\u0131nda daha da y\u00fckselece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6ren Wong, baz senaryosunun Eyl\u00fcl’de 50 baz puanl\u0131k bir indirim yap\u0131lmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oldu\u011funu belirtti. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\u0130ndirim sinyali d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kal\u0131r m\u0131?<\/strong><\/b><\/p>\n

Swap piyasalar\u0131 Fed\u2019in bu y\u0131l 100 baz puan faiz indirmesini fiyatlarken, Interactive Brokers\u2019tan Jose Torres \u201cPowell para politikas\u0131 merdivenlerinden yava\u015f bir y\u00fcr\u00fcy\u00fc\u015f\u00fc m\u00fc yoksa bodrum kat\u0131na h\u0131zl\u0131 bir asans\u00f6r yolculu\u011funu mu ima edecek? Muhtemelen asans\u00f6r yerine merdivenleri se\u00e7ecek\u201d yorumunu yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n

Wolfe Research\u2019ten Chris Senyek, Powell\u2019\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl’de ba\u015flayacak bir gev\u015feme d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc sinyali verece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnse de, piyasan\u0131n fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n aksine, 25 baz puandan daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir kesinti sinyali verece\u011fine inanm\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

CFRA\u2019dan Sam Stovall da bir sonraki Fed geni\u015fleme d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir indirimle \u201cdaha \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc bir \u015fekilde\u201d ba\u015flat\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyor.<\/p>\n

NatAlliance Securities\u2019den Andrew Brenner ise Fed \u00fcyelerinden d\u00fcn gelen a\u00e7\u0131klamalara i\u015faret ederek, \u201cSenaryo a\u00e7\u0131k – Fed Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda gev\u015femeye gidecek, ancak kimse \u015fu anda 50 baz puan gev\u015feme arzusu g\u00f6stermiyor\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n

\u00d6te yandan eski Pimco CEO\u2019su ve Bloomberg Opinion yazar\u0131 Mohamed El-Erian\u2019a g\u00f6re yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, y\u0131l sonundan \u00f6nce Fed\u2019in agresif bir dizi faiz indirimine gitmesi ihtimalini abart\u0131yor. \u201cPiyasan\u0131n \u015fu anda bu kadar \u00e7ok faiz indirimini fiyatl\u0131yor olmas\u0131 bana g\u00f6re sorunlu,\u201d diyen El-Erian, \u201cPiyasa a\u015f\u0131r\u0131ya ka\u00e7\u0131yor\u201d yorumunu yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n

El-Erian\u2019a g\u00f6re Fed\u2019in y\u0131l sonuna kadar 75 baz puan faiz indirmesi daha ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i bir ihtimal.<\/p>\n\n

<\/p>\n

Kaynak :\u00a0https:\/\/www.bloomberght.com\/jackson-hole-oncesi-okumaniz-gereken-ongoruler-2358874<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Powell\u2019\u0131n bug\u00fcnk\u00fc kritik konu\u015fmas\u0131nda yak\u0131n zamanda faizleri indirmenin uygun g\u00f6z\u00fckt\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6ylemesi ancak indirimin boyutu konusunda net bir sinyal vermemesi bekleniyor. Piyasalarda ise Powell\u2019\u0131n bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in 100 baz puana ula\u015fan indirim…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9633,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[1312,405,246,543,1547],"manset":[],"class_list":["post-9632","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-baz-puan","tag-faiz","tag-fed","tag-indirim","tag-sinyal"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9632","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9632"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9632\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9634,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9632\/revisions\/9634"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9633"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9632"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9632"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9632"},{"taxonomy":"manset","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisanlari.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/manset?post=9632"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}